Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are effectively flat ahead of the jobs data, we're set to open at sp'2095. USD is bouncing, +0.2% @ DXY 95.60s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2. Oil is battling to rebound, +0.2%.


sp'60min

Summary

.... little to add.

Awaiting the monthly jobs data @ 8.30am.....
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Update from Oscar



Kinda unusual to see Oscar start turning bearish after just a minor down wave from 2134 to 2093, although I realise he is focusing more on the style of price action than actual levels right now.
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End week doom chatter from Hunter



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Have a good Friday.
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8.31am.. Monthly jobs data: 280k net gains, headline rate: 5.5%

Market is NOT happy about it... indexes snap lower...    metals ain't happy either...  Gold -$11

So.. its a case of 'good news is bad news'.

sp -8pts.... 2087

USD soaring...... +0.9% @ 96.30s
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8.36am.... secondary bounce wave.... sp -3pts... but overall..  we're set for a negative open... pressured by a higher USD.. as market is now concerned about rate hikes.


8.40am Gold -$9...  I am short Gold - via GLD, will look to exit at the open, as I fear a Euro bounce back next week.


9.05am.... chop chop... sp -3pts... 2092.... it'd seem we'll slip to the low 2080s today... but I do NOT expect sustained trading <2070.

*I've a tight stop on a Gold-short... will likely get kicked at the open.


9.23am.. sp' set to open FLAT.  

Equity bears should be mindful of a reversal anywhere in the 2090/85 zone...
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Gold -$12... looks like I might get to tighten my stop :)


9.33am.. KICKED from GLD-short.  :) 


9.35am.. sp'2090.... there will be some sig' support here.... equity bears... BEWARE!



9.39am.. Eyes on the VIX... +5% in the mid 15s.... 16s looking tough...

It does look like we'll level out in the 2080s... and the nonsense resumes higher next week.. and at least into the next FOMC (June 17th).

Looking forward to Friday

Friday should make for a rather entertaining day in market land. Not only will there be the usual monthly jobs data, there is the bi-annual OPEC meeting. Perhaps even more important, the Greek 'issue' rumbles on, as the pressure builds for a GREXIT.


sp'weekly7

Summary

*its been a long day, I really want to keep this brief!
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With the move under sp'2100, the weekly 'rainbow' candle has turned outright bearish red. A net weekly decline looks probable for most indexes.

The lower bol' is offering 'best case' downside to the 2020s, although recent price action strongly argues against anything much below 2080 in the current down wave from 2134.
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Looking ahead

Friday will see the monthly jobs data, market is expecting 220k net job gains, with a static headline jobless rate of 5.4%. That does not look overly optimistic... and a fair few are looking for 250/275k.

There is also consumer credit data (3pm).

*Fed official Dudley is speaking around lunch, and Mr Market will likely be listening.
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Mid term bearish... but not quite yet.

I am still seeking another little wave higher in the coming weeks, perhaps to tag the upper bol' on the weekly and monthly cycles - somewhere in the sp'2160/80 zone.

In terms of the Dow...

Dow, weekly'2, with fibs.

Best guess... 18400/600s... then downside to 16500/000 by early autumn. With continuing QE, low rates, and stock buy backs, I can't see anything lower than that.

I realise some of you believe a grand multi-year top is soon to pass (if not already), but I can't accept it, as much as a part of me would like to.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed significantly lower, sp -18pts @ 2095 (intra low 2093). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is for further weakness to the low sp'2080s, a break into the 2070s will be very difficult. Renewed strength looks due next week.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Little to add.

An interesting day, market battled hard to hold the double low of sp'2099... but with that failure, saw further weakness to 2093.

Regardless of how we open Friday... the market should at least see the low 2080s.. if briefly.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...