sp'weekly7
Summary
*its been a long day, I really want to keep this brief!
--
With the move under sp'2100, the weekly 'rainbow' candle has turned outright bearish red. A net weekly decline looks probable for most indexes.
The lower bol' is offering 'best case' downside to the 2020s, although recent price action strongly argues against anything much below 2080 in the current down wave from 2134.
-
Looking ahead
Friday will see the monthly jobs data, market is expecting 220k net job gains, with a static headline jobless rate of 5.4%. That does not look overly optimistic... and a fair few are looking for 250/275k.
There is also consumer credit data (3pm).
*Fed official Dudley is speaking around lunch, and Mr Market will likely be listening.
--
Mid term bearish... but not quite yet.
I am still seeking another little wave higher in the coming weeks, perhaps to tag the upper bol' on the weekly and monthly cycles - somewhere in the sp'2160/80 zone.
In terms of the Dow...
Dow, weekly'2, with fibs.
Best guess... 18400/600s... then downside to 16500/000 by early autumn. With continuing QE, low rates, and stock buy backs, I can't see anything lower than that.
I realise some of you believe a grand multi-year top is soon to pass (if not already), but I can't accept it, as much as a part of me would like to.
Goodnight from London