Tuesday, 2 June 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2104. The USD has swung lower on Greek chatter, -0.7% @ DXY 96.80s. Metals are duly a little higher, Gold +$3. Oil has built early sig' gains of 1.2%.


sp'60min


Summary

*awaiting factory orders (10am).
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Equity futures have seen some strong overnight swings, the sp' was -15pts at one point. We're seeing the usual jumpy price action based on sporadic chatter about Greece.

China saw a second day of strong gains, settling +1.7% @ 4910... 5K is due this week.
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As for US equities today... a break under the recent low of 2099 looks due... which should clarify we are headed to the 2090/80 zone... before the Friday jobs data/OPEC meeting.

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meanwhile...


One of the Bloomberg hosts was utterly ironic with his response that the problem 'is contained to Greece'... it was essentially in the style of Bernanke (talking about the housing market) from 2007/08.

It remains bizarre how most analysts are almost completely oblivious (or should that be denial?) of the chronic economic problems within Spain - the ugliest of the EU PIIGS.

With mass unemployment, a society fractured (have we forgotten about Catalonia?)...  the Spanish people will be screaming to follow Greece when the next major financial crisis hits.

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Have a good Tuesday
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9.17am.. the USD is getting smashed, -1.5% in the DXY 95.90s, as the Euro jumps on more nonsense Greek chatter.

Metals have naturally jumped, Gold +$7.

Equities remain moderately weak, sp -6pts... 2105.
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9.43am.. 50dma of sp'2099.50.. .taken out.... empty air down to the 2080s.

VIX in the low 15s.... 16s look due

China is increasingly volatile

The Chinese equity market began the month with renewed hyper strength, +4.7% @ 4828. The giant psy' level of 5K remains an obvious target. With the Shanghai comp' having ramped from 1991 (May 2014)... a major retrace is increasingly due this summer... probably to the 3400s.


China,daily



China,monthly, 20yr


Summary

Suffice to add.. regardless of whether 5K is broken in the near term... a major retrace across most world equity markets looks increasingly due this summer.

For the SSEC, the natural downside target would be the key 3400 breakout level. If correct, that would really spook the amateur China retail investor (or should that be gambler?).

Regardless of any summer/autumnal downside... the broader trend remains hyper-strong.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Factory orders data (10am).
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2111 (intra high 2119). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook remains for weakness to the 2090/80 zone, before renewed upside into the FOMC of June 17'th.


sp'daily5


Trans


Summary

*some distinct weakness in the closing hour from sp'2119 to 2111
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Little to add.

A bit of a mixed day of moderate chop. Further weakness to the sp'2090/80 zone seems probable ahead of the Friday jobs data... before renewed strength into the next FOMC of June 17th.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...