2pm update - equities continue to slide

US equity indexes are significantly lower, sp -24pts @ 2101. Considering the USD, VIX, and Bonds, it would seem another day of downside is due... with the 50dma (2097) set to fail... offering 2080/75 zone by Thursday morning. Metals remain weak, Gold -$18, whilst Oil is lower by a very significant -3.4%.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*VIX looks set to hit the low 15s...  although if sp'2080, that might equate to VIX 16/17s... briefly.
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With continued strength in the USD, today has certainly turned out to be a lot more dynamic than expected, with sig' declines across all indexes... and most commodities.

It really is a case of whether the USD cools to 90/89... or just pushes straight up to the 120s.

If there is no cooling to the low 90s across June/July.. then 120s are due by the autumn.. and that would make for a broader market shock.
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notable weakness: copper miners, FCX -4.9%, TCK -6.2%...

AAPL -1.9%...   with the Nasdaq comp' -1.2% at 5026...

1pm update - USD not cooling

The USD is not seeing any kind of intraday retrace, holding sig' gains of 1.2% in the DXY 97.20s. The precious metals are (naturally) under strong downward pressure, Gold -$18, having lost the psy' level of $1200, Silver -2.0%. Oil is similarly weak, -3.4%


USO, daily

GLD, daily

Summary

*USO looks vulnerable to at least another 3% lower, with mainstream chatter of Oil falling to $55 or so.. which does look probable.
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Without question... most should be placing their attention on the USD. Unless it stops going up... major problems are ahead, especially in commodity land.
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notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -5.7%.. breaking a new historic low of $3.42... utter sector destruction, with ACI, ANR, and WLT all on the path to disappearing entirely.
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Bonds...

TLT, daily

Increasing strength - higher for the fourth consecutive day, and now its a case of whether TLT can break a new historic high (>137.38).
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stay tuned !

12pm update - Trans remains ugly

Whilst the sp'500 is -18pts @ 2107, there is particular weakness in the Transports -1.1% in the 8300s, with a clear break of trend on the weekly cycle. USD continue to hold sig' gains, +1.2% in the DXY 97.10s, which is pressuring the metals and Oil.


Trans, daily

Trans'weekly2

Summary

For now.. it remains just one index breaking the broader trend - from 2012.. but it certainly merits increasing attention.

From a pure cyclical perspective the Trans is due another up wave.. but clearly.. there is ZERO sign of a turn right now.

More than anything.. eyes to the USD. If it doesn't stop rising... then all sorts of interesting things are going to happen.

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notable weakness:  copper miners, FXX -3.5%, with TCK -4.9%

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch