11am update - USD on the border

Whilst equities remain broadly weak, the USD remains on the edge of what is either the top end of a bounce (from DXY 93s).. or merely the start of a hyper-ramp to the 120s. Any sustained action >98.. and certainly any break >101, would bode for a straight up move that would result in all manner of capital market turmoil.


UUP, daily2, outlook

sp'daily5

Summary

The levels are very clear for the USD... any further higher... and the secondary downside target of DXY 90/89s will be out of range... not just for weeks/months.. but YEARS.

The implications should be clear to anyone... not least in terms of Oil and the Precious metals.
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notable weakness: coal miners, ACI -10%, ANR -12%, BTU -4%... the sector destruction continues.
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VIX is reflecting a moderately concerned market...

Next resistance is a rather obvious 15.00. The big 20 threshold is still a very long way up.. and would require USD > 100...

In either case... an interesting start to a short week.

10am update - strong dollar causing problems

With the USD +1.0% in the DXY 97.00s, most $ denominated asset classes are under significant downward pressure.. even equities. Metals are especially weak, Gold -$16, with Silver -1.6%. Oil is similarly on the slide, -1.9% in the $58s.


sp'daily5

GLD, daily

Summary

*metals look very vulnerable... and if the USD doesn't start to cool... the Nov' 2014 floor will be taken out.
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As for equities... a retrace to the 50dma is now on the menu.. but still.. its nothing of any particular significance.

The wild card remains Greece, but I would guess they'll kick the can out another month or two.

VIX is building strong early gains +15% @ 13.90s.... next resistance is not until 15.00.... which would bode for sp'2100.. where the 50dma will soon be lurking.

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notable weakness: GDX -2.5%.. as the metals see sig' declines

coal miners, ANR -12%....  BTU -3%.... dire sector.
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awaiting a trio of data at 10am...
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Overnight gains in China, +2.0% @ 4910.... truly incredible.. with the giant 5K threshold viable in the next session.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2122. The USD continues to climb, +0.9% in the DXY 96.80s. Metals are under pressure, Gold -$10, having lost the psy' level of $1200, with Silver -1.5%. Oil is similarly on the slide, -1.4%.


sp'daily5

GLD, daily

Summary

*I'm not surprised to see the metals (finally) see a break back under $1200.. as the USD is naturally pressuring most $ asset classes lower.
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As for equities... I don't expect any sig' downside this week.

All things considered, the sp'2150s look due within two weeks, and 2170s by the next FOMC of June 17th.

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To be clear.... DXY to break into the 97s... but then turning lower for a month or two.

However, any sustained action in the 98s would be too high to be considered a bounce/retrace... and would instead by suggestive of a straight run to the 120s... before year end.
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*awaiting a truck load of econ-data this morning.

.. also notable.. Fed official Fischer is speaking on 'The Fed and the global economy' this lunch time in Israel. Mr Market will be listening.
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Have a good week


8.36am Durable Good orders, -0.5%.. not so pretty... but ironically above market expectations.

Indexes continue to cool.. if slowly, sp -5pts... 2121.

Metals are where the early sig' weakness remains, Gold -$16, with Silver -2.1%...

.. as the USD +1.1% in the DXY 97.00s..... 


8.56am... the USD continues to climb.. pressuring everything....

sp-7pts  2119...

Gold -$18....  having lost the 50dma

Oil -2.0%.... looking problematic.. back in the $58s.