Good morning. Futures are a little weak, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 2122. USD is cooling, -0.2% in the DXY 95.20s. Oil is building early sig' gains of 1.5% in the $59s.
sp'daily5
Summary
*awaiting a wheel barrow of econ-data this morning...
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So.. a little overnight weakness, but as usual... nothing significant.
Broadly, it still looks like the main market will rise into mid June. With it now looking that a rate rise is unlikely until at least Sept', it increasingly appears the market could rally all the way to Aug/Sept.
Eyes on the Nasdaq...
monthly'2, 20yr
A break above 5132 would be VERY significant.. and suggestive of another 7-10% higher across the summer, before the first chance of a sig' retrace. 5K is arguably in the process of solidifying as the new floor.
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notable early mover.. BABA +0.9% in the $91s.. seemingly headed for $100.. given another month or two.
Best Buy (BBY) +7%... post earnings jump.
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Have a good Thursday :)
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8.34am.... NEWS... Lumber liquidators CEO resigns... LL -24% in the $19s, simply dire. The knife catchers cross the last few months are getting zeroed out.
Whilst the US equity market saw a day of minor chop (aside from the Transports), there remains notable strength in the Chinese and Japanese markets. The Shanghai comp' looks set for the giant psy' level of 5K, whilst the BoJ fueled Nikkei is battling toward 22K by July.
China - SSEC, monthly
Japan - Nikkei, monthly
Summary
After a little weakness earlier this month, the SSEC is back on the rise... and looks set to break the recent high of 4572. Once we see 4600s.. it should become pretty clear to the mainstream that 5K will be hit this summer.
As for the Nikkei, it is higher for 11 of the last 13 months... and the two net monthly declines were only fractional. The BoJ is clearly intent on keeping the Nikkei on a course to far higher levels... talk of challenging the 1989 Dec'high of 38957 is already starting to arise.
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Brief update on the Trans
It is highly notable that the Trans - 'old leader', has seen 5 net monthly declines of the past 7. That should certainly give the bull maniacs at least something to think about.
However, 2012 saw the Trans trade sideways, whilst the rest of the market soared. To me, that is probably what we're seeing right now.
Not forgetting, the Nasdaq comp' looks set to take out the March 2000 high of 5132, and that would bode for further upside into the 5500/5750 zone.. BEFORE any realistic chance of a sig' correction of 10/15%.
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Video update from Mr Long, with guest Rubino.
As ever, always recommended viewing, although I certainly do not agree with all of what was said.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see a wheel barrow of econ-data...
: weekly jobs, Chicago fed, PMI manu', Phil fed', existing home sales, leading indicators.
That will give the market plenty of excuse to move one way or another in the early morning.
*it is notable that the Yellen will be speaking on the econ-outlook - Friday @ 1pm, and despite a 3 day weekend looming, there should more than enough to keep most traders awake.
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US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp -2pts @ 2125 (new historic high
2134). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.0% and +0.2% respectively.
Near term outlook remains broadly bullish, at least to the FOMC of June
17th.. which it would seem, will not see a rate hike.
sp'daily5
Dow
Trans
Summary
*another particularly weak day for the Transports, with a rather nasty close in the low 8500s. Next support is around 8300.
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As a collective, the broader market remains strong.
It certainly merits mention that the sp'500 achieved a new historic high for the THIRD consecutive day... and that certainly ain't bearish, is it?
The bigger weekly/monthly cycles remain highly suggestive of the 2170s by the next FOMC of June 17th.
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