Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +10pts, we're set to open at 2108. With the USD continuing to decline, -0.3% @ DXY 93.30s, the metals are a little higher, Gold +$2. Oil is building sig' gains of 1.1%.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly7

Summary

*note the upper bollinger on the weekly cycle, still offering the 2140s in the near term.
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Well, now its seemingly a case of whether we'll see a net weekly gain.

A break above 2110 will be important, but more so, 2117. If the latter is achieved, we should be trading in the 2135/45 zone by end month.

Best guess... new historic highs in some indexes, but the Trans/R2K are probably an early warning of 'summer trouble'.
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The continuing weakness in the USD is no surprise, but we're clearly VERY vulnerable to flooring in the DXY 93/92s.
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*awaiting weekly jobs data... but more so.. PPI data.

Have a good Thursday
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8.32am.. sp +12pts, 2110... back to the Tuesday high.

Jobs data were arguably 'fine'... PPI was -0.4%... but then... lower prices are good for some.

Metals are cooling a touch, Gold back to flat.... although it is notable Gold was -$6 overnight.

USD continues to retrace

Whilst the broader equity market saw a day of minor chop, there was notable significant weakness in the USD, which settled lower by -0.9% @ DXY 93.76 (intra low 93.50). The retrace from the March high of 100.71 now amounts to 7%, with a viable 3-4% still to go.


USD, weekly

USD, monthly'3, outlook

Summary

It is very notable that whilst the USD has now cooled a significant 7% since March, the US equity indexes have been broadly flat.

That does not bode well for the equity bulls, for when the USD starts clawing back upward (never mind >DXY 100), it will put major downward pressure on most US asset classes.

Eventually - and it remains one of my core longer term predictions, the DXY 120s look set to be hit. That would likely occur via a GREXIT, with €/$ 0.80s.


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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, along with PPI data.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed broadly flat, sp -0.6pts @ 2098 (intra high 2110). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook still slightly favours new highs in some indexes, but certainly not all. Increasingly, the market looks like it is setting up for a summer retrace/correction.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*the 'old leader' - Transports, continues to really struggle. The index has been broadly stuck since last November, and remains under the rather important 200dma.
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Broadly.. new historic highs in the sp'500, Dow, NYSE/Nasdaq comp' look viable in the near term.. however, it would seem the two leaders - Trans/R2K are offering a preliminary warning of 'summer trouble'.

It is especially notable that whilst the USD has cooled a full 7% since March, the US markets have largely failed to benefit. Add 7% back to the USD later this summer, and we are probably looking at indexes much lower.

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a little more later.... on the USD