Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed broadly flat, sp -0.6pts @ 2098 (intra high 2110). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook still slightly favours new highs in some indexes, but certainly not all. Increasingly, the market looks like it is setting up for a summer retrace/correction.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*the 'old leader' - Transports, continues to really struggle. The index has been broadly stuck since last November, and remains under the rather important 200dma.
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Broadly.. new historic highs in the sp'500, Dow, NYSE/Nasdaq comp' look viable in the near term.. however, it would seem the two leaders - Trans/R2K are offering a preliminary warning of 'summer trouble'.

It is especially notable that whilst the USD has cooled a full 7% since March, the US markets have largely failed to benefit. Add 7% back to the USD later this summer, and we are probably looking at indexes much lower.

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a little more later.... on the USD