3pm update - maxed out... probably

US equity indexes appear to have maxed out at sp'2092. A touch of weakness into the close looks likely, with a viable snap lower on the monthly jobs data. With the USD +0.6%, the metals are under pressure, Gold -$8. Oil continues to weaken, -2.8%.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

... updates into the close...
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*I have eyes on FXI... but remain a little concerned about an overnight gain.. which would not be the best thing to wake up to tomorrow morning.

In any case.. the Shanghai comp' looks set for 4K.... which is another 2.5% lower.
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notable weakness: DISCA -2.4%.... bigger daily/monthly charts look bearish.
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3.15pm... Market remains stuck... as everyone is wondering not just what the data will be tomorrow morning, but far more difficult to fathom.... how will the market interpret it...

Ohh.. and by the way...

Does anyone know how to place a trade?
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3.32pm... Market chop.. .sp'2087... a touch weaker...

Watching FXI... its been flat lining across the day... as things are, I'm not in the mood to hold short overnight.. not least with the hourly cycle threatening one or two up days.. before renewed downside.

Will reassess tomorrow...
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Overall though.. lots of bear flags all over the place.. including Gold...      I just hope to ride the wave lower when it breaks <$1130. In theory.. it should happen within the next few weeks.
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3.46pm.. VIX turns positive.... with sp'2086..... first hint of tomorrow?

Oil -3.0%... not helping energy stocks!  SDRL -6.6%
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... well, micro 5/15min cycles are offering a bull flag....  but I ain't buying it.

back at the close.

2pm update - VIX is holding up well

Whilst equity indexes are holding moderate gains, sp +9pts @ 2089, the VIX is trading flat in the low 15s. There remains high probability of another wave lower... and the excuse for tomorrow could be 'good news is bad news'. Metals remain weak, Gold -$8. Oil continues to slide, -2.6%.


VIX'60min

sp'60min

Summary

We might well have a turn underway... with VIX set to turn positive, and equities cooling into the close.
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*I am looking to the next trade... China-short is a valid short term trade...

FXI' 15min

For now... I'm content to watch.. but there is viable downside to the 47s. To be considered this hour.

As ever.. typical turn time is 2.30pm... so I'll be especially watching the smaller 5/15min cycles.

1pm update - early afternoon chop

US equities are holding moderate gains, with the sp +11pts @ 2092. VIX is naturally cooling, -1% in the upper 14s. Metals are weak, Gold -$9, and Silver -1.1%. Oil is significantly cooling -2.2%.. back under the $60 threshold.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Yesterday saw some notable technical damage.. with two key lows - sp'2077 and 72 being taken out.

Right now.. I find it difficult to see the market not rolling over somewhere in the 2095/2100 zone... first soft downside would be 2050.

The obvious 'best bearish case' would be a test of the rising 200dma.. but that is out of range until at least next Tue/Wed.
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notable weakness, copper miners, FCX/TCK, both lower by around -2%.

strength: BABA +7.1%... holding sig' gains, although the daily candle is a big black-fail one.. and those often don't end so well.