Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +1pts, we're set to open at 2081. Metals are weak, Gold -$6, holding within a large bearish H/S formation. Oil is holding moderate gains of 0.8%.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly7
Summary
*it is notable that the weekly 'rainbow' cycle is now offering a bearish red candle, although the equity bears have been regularly teased this year.
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It is election day here in the UK, naturally, the media are largely silent about it... as they are ordered to be. The result should be clear by 6pm EST today.
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Overnight futures were as low as sp -14pts a little earlier, which would have marginally taken out yesterdays low. Instead, we're seeing an early bounce.. as clown finance TV report that fed official Evans says no rate hikes until 2016.
Equity bears need at least a moderately lower close today to have any realistic hope of hitting the 2040/30 zone in the current down wave from 2125.
*USD is +0.3%, and that will help to put some downward pressure on the market today. Clearly though, the bigger reaction will come tomorrow morning.
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Earnings...
BABA, EPS 48 cents vs 42 exp. Rev' beat too, stock +10% @ $88.
WFM, EPS inline @ 43 cents, rev' a touch light, market using the latter as an excuse to sell the stock lower by a sig' -13%.
TSLA, loss per share was better than expected. In Wed' AH, the stock traded higher in the low $240s, but this morning is selling lower as increasingly more are talking about how it is over-valued... currently -2.6% @ $224.
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Good wishes for Thursday trading
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8.50am Futures are weakening, sp -6pts, to 2074.
*Gold is -$10.... I will probably drop that (short position).... shortly after the open.
9.36am.. EXITED GLD-short from 113.90...... not as great as I hoped... but its a gain.
Thursday, 7 May 2015
King Dollar continues to slide
The USD continues to slide, net lower for the fourth consecutive week. Primary target zone of the DXY 93/92s is now being hit, with the secondary target of 90/89 seemingly probable by mid June. Regardless of where the USD floors within the near term... the 120s are the grander target, and that is indeed a very long way higher.
USD, weekly
USD, monthly3, with outlook
Summary
It is pleasing to see the first target zone already effectively hit.. and it is still only early May.
A 1-2 week bounce is possible at any time - back to the DXY 95/96s... but in any case... it would now seem the secondary target zone of 90/89 is probable in this retrace from the recent peak of 100.71.
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China still cooling
A second day lower for the Shanghai comp'...
The SSEC looks set for the 4K psy' level within the near term.. it should hold there, before an attempt to break new highs in June/July.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, and consumer credit (3pm).
Market will likely see continued underlying weakness, ahead of the Friday monthly jobs data.
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Goodnight from London
USD, weekly
USD, monthly3, with outlook
Summary
It is pleasing to see the first target zone already effectively hit.. and it is still only early May.
A 1-2 week bounce is possible at any time - back to the DXY 95/96s... but in any case... it would now seem the secondary target zone of 90/89 is probable in this retrace from the recent peak of 100.71.
-
China still cooling
A second day lower for the Shanghai comp'...
The SSEC looks set for the 4K psy' level within the near term.. it should hold there, before an attempt to break new highs in June/July.
--
Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, and consumer credit (3pm).
Market will likely see continued underlying weakness, ahead of the Friday monthly jobs data.
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities closed moderately weak, sp -9pts @ 2080 (intra low 2067). The two leaders
- Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook
is bearish to the 2040/30 zone before the weekend. There still remains
significant threat of marginal new highs in late May/early June.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
*the two leaders are still leading the way lower... although both saw notable moderate net daily gains.
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With the loss of sp'2072, there is effectively empty air to at least 2050, if not as likely... 2040/30 zone, where the 200dma will be lurking this Friday morning.
Near term bearish.. but viable new historic highs (in some.. but not necessarily all indexes) by early June.
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
*the two leaders are still leading the way lower... although both saw notable moderate net daily gains.
--
With the loss of sp'2072, there is effectively empty air to at least 2050, if not as likely... 2040/30 zone, where the 200dma will be lurking this Friday morning.
Near term bearish.. but viable new historic highs (in some.. but not necessarily all indexes) by early June.
--
a little more later...
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