Thursday, 7 May 2015

12pm update - holding moderate gains

US equity indexes are holding moderate gains, having swung from an early low of sp'2074 to 2089. A daily/weekly close in the 2100s currently looks unlikely. With the USD +0.5%, the metals are under pressure, Gold -$8, with Silver -1.1%. Oil is in cooling mode, -1.8%


sp'60min



GLD, 60min'2


Summary

*metals remain weak, but if the USD cools tomorrow (for whatever reason) there will be another wave higher.. which I would likely re-short.. but on Monday.
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So, we're moderately higher, but Mr Market looks highly vulnerable. The sp'500 really shouldn't go much above 2088/90... where the 50dma is lurking.
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notable strength: BABA +7.1%, but sig' below the opening high.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time to cook.. or something

11am update - battling upward

US equities are battling hard for minor gains, but overall market mood remains somewhat unsettled, and there remains high probability of a major sell down on the Friday jobs data. With the USD +0.6%, the metals are under pressure, Gold -$10. Oil is similarly on the slide, -2.2%.


sp'60min



GLD'60min2


Summary

*Having exited a GLD-short earlier, I'm looking for a re-entry.. but I might just not get a better level. Oh well.
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So... we're battling upward right now.. but things don't feel so great in market land... not least after the last two days.. as also supported via very weak EU/Asia markets.

On balance.. we're still set to fall into the weekend.
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notable cooling in BABA....


A rather classic opening black-fail candle... and for those watching the open.. the smart ones will have already bailed, not least as the broader market still looks vulnerable.

As I often say... black-fail candles are not to be dismissed lightly! (even when earnings were good)
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time to shop... back soon!


11.32am  sp +8pts @ 2088.... hmm... latter day weakness remains very viable... or a simple gap lower on the Friday open. For now.. market is moving into holding pattern...

Oil remains notably weak, -1.8%...  and that is not helping energy stocks., SDRL -4%

10am update - opening chop

US equities open with some mixed chop. With the USD +0.5% in the DXY 94.50s, the metals are moderately weak, Gold -$5. Oil has seen a strong early reversal, now -1.4%.


sp'60min


Summary

A bit of a messy open, broadly the market 'should' see another net daily decline, but clearly.. there are dip buyers out there.

Right now, the sp'2040/30 zone looks a long way down, but it is viable in the current down wave.

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GLD, 15min


*I exited a GLD short at the open... minor gain... will consider a re-short on any bounce into the afternoon.

What I'm really seeking is a trade when Gold breaks under the Nov' low of $1130. That is viable at any time... not least with price structure as it is.
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notable gains, BABA +7.8% @$86s... starting to cool from the opening high of $89.71.


10.30am Continued minor weak chop... no buyers >sp'2080.

Metals seeing renewed weakness, Gold -$8... with Silver -1.0%