12pm update - more threats from the Fed

With the sp'500 breaking to 2089.81.. the bulls achieved another victory, having climbed from the Monday low of 2056. Or is this a fractional fake out? The real problem remains the sporadic threats from the Federal reserve... not just about delaying a rate rise... but even of QE4. Oil has built sig' gains of 2.5%, into the $53s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*ignoring the minor noise for this hour... with a few daily charts.
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What is clear.. we are higher for the third consecutive day.. and currently... market mood is unquestionably at least 'reasonably' calm. There isn't even any talk of Greece in the mainstream.

As for the Fed, it is of course laughable.. but also contemptible to see the sporadic threats from various Fed officials to keep rates low (so much for retirees).. or for simply re-spooling up the printing.

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notable strength: SDRL +6.4% @ $10.98... helped with continued Oil gains.
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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch

11am update - breaking out

US equities are breaking above the key March 30th' high of sp'2088.97. A second daily close above the 50dma (2074) looks highly probable. Near term downside scenarios are now off the menu. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3. Oil has swung higher, +1.0%... seemingly headed for first bounce/retrace target of $60.


sp'60min

Trans, daily

Summary

*the strength in Oil is really helping the broader market, and as noted in yesterday's closing post, the bigger weekly cycle is offering the first bullish candle since last June.
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It is notable that the Transports are already holding sig' gains of around 1%... despite Oil continuing to rise.
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Well, for the serious 'bear money'.. we're now in white flag zone. Market mood is increasingly confident, not least with the various Fed' officials threatening QE4... as bizarre as that sounds.

There is the Greece issue of course, but from what I see, they'll somehow rustle up the funds to meet a Thursday payment to the IMF.

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notable strength: SDRL +5%.. which is seeing some sig' follow through after yesterday's strong gains.
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time to shop... back soon
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11.23am... Minor chop... sp'2085.. but still... with the Oil and the Transports rising... this is lousy morning for those in bear land.

10am update - another breakout attempt

US equities are battling to build minor gains in early trading, but more importantly, to break above the March' 30th high of sp'2088. A second day of net gains.. with a close in the 2090s would negate all near term downside scenarios.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX trying to hold the floor... but it remains an extremely marginal situation
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So... opening gains.. and the 'white flag' zone for the equity bears is a mere few points away.

Market mood seems increasingly confident.... its not looking so great, but as ever, that is what short-side trading stops are for, right?
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notable weakness:  GDX -1.4%... as the metals are weak, Gold -$5
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10.05am... Indexes weakening.... bears should be desperate for a daily close back under the 50dma of sp'2074, along with VIX in the 15s.. at minimum.