11am update - a market of stop runs

The reversal is so far holding with a high of sp'2079, but it is typical turn time.. and market looks vulnerable for the rest of today. Metals are holding strong gains, Gold +$19. Oil is similarly significantly higher, +2.9%.


sp'60min

GLD, weekly'3

Summary

*Gold bugs are naturally getting excited at the imminent end of the financial world. However, I would agree with Oscar.. there is a clear H/S formation.. from the Nov' low. Natural downside target would be the $1000 threshold. No doubt... any gold bug would be dismissive of that.. but then... they have been dismissive of downside since the $1900s.
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So.. opening weakness, a strong rebound... but frankly.. this merely looks a place for longs to exit.. and anyone who wasn't short from last week.. to re-enter.

In many ways, it is arguably just the same old algo-bot nonsense.. running stops.. on both sides. I'd guess Riley will also suggest that later today.
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*It is notable that despite the index gains of around 0.5%... the VIX is a touch positive.

Interesting afternoon ahead!
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11.30am.. sp'2080..... VIX still.. fractionally positive.

Oil gains are helping market.. +3.8%.... but hell... supply issues remain a problem.. completely unaddressed.

10am update - opening reversal

US equities open somewhat lower to sp'2056, but there is a clear reversal in progress.. as reflected in a VIX that is still not showing any real upside kick. Metals are holding strong gains, Gold +$18, whilst Oil is +1.6%.


sp'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Classic reversal candles all over the place... with a black-fail on the VIX hourly/daily cycles. Utter failure for the bears.

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Despite the open... bulls need a daily close above the 50dma (sp'2073) before they can get confident that the mid-term trend is turning back upward.

Best guess.. bulls fail to close >2073... with renewed weakness across this week. It remains notable that the Transports looks particularly ugly.

We have a long week ahead... 
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Notable strength: TSLA +4.7%.. as the shorts get burned
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10.01am ISM/PMI service sector data both came in 'reasonable'... certainly, not reflecting the recent recessionary Chicago PMI.

... so far... no one wants to buy above sp'2070.

There are a LOT of black-fail candles right now.. including energy. In many ways... equity bulls are getting an opportunity to make a run for it.
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10.28am.. sp'2075...  taking out the short-stops at the 50dma.

Now its a case of ..close above.. or below.  Any close much above 2073 negates any further downside hopes.

Is it time for Greece to issue another 'give us money or else' headline?


10.31am.. A 22pt (1.1%) swing in the opening 60mins of the trading week.

Market now at hourly resistance zone... 2078/81.. Hmmmmm


10.36am.. VIX is making a play to turn back upward....  with sp'2079...  

VIX weekly cycle is offering something interesting.. but more on that later.

TSLA +7.4%.. but starting to cool... as the shorts have mostly all covered.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -14pts, we're set to open at 2052. Metals are sharply higher, Gold +$18, with Silver +2.0%. Energy is mixed, Nat' gas -2.4%, whilst Oil is +1,2%.


sp'daily5

Summary

So... after last Friday mornings lousy jobs data, we're set to open lower, but as usual, its nothing significant.

All equity cycles favour the bears, and in theory, we have a fairly high chance of breaking the the key low of sp'2039 late today/early tomorrow.

A break of 2039 will open up a test of the 200dma in the sp'2013/15 zone. It remains notable that the Transports has already completely failed to hold that key MA.
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notable strength: TSLA +3.9%, after Friday sales data.

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Update from Mr C.



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Have a good Monday