Monday 6 April 2015

11am update - a market of stop runs

The reversal is so far holding with a high of sp'2079, but it is typical turn time.. and market looks vulnerable for the rest of today. Metals are holding strong gains, Gold +$19. Oil is similarly significantly higher, +2.9%.


sp'60min



GLD, weekly'3


Summary

*Gold bugs are naturally getting excited at the imminent end of the financial world. However, I would agree with Oscar.. there is a clear H/S formation.. from the Nov' low. Natural downside target would be the $1000 threshold. No doubt... any gold bug would be dismissive of that.. but then... they have been dismissive of downside since the $1900s.
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So.. opening weakness, a strong rebound... but frankly.. this merely looks a place for longs to exit.. and anyone who wasn't short from last week.. to re-enter.

In many ways, it is arguably just the same old algo-bot nonsense.. running stops.. on both sides. I'd guess Riley will also suggest that later today.
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*It is notable that despite the index gains of around 0.5%... the VIX is a touch positive.

Interesting afternoon ahead!
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11.30am.. sp'2080..... VIX still.. fractionally positive.

Oil gains are helping market.. +3.8%.... but hell... supply issues remain a problem.. completely unaddressed.