12pm update - intra bounce

US equities are seeing a natural bounce.. having made a new cycle low of sp'2045. The bigger weekly cycles are highly suggestive of lower levels into early next week. Metals are holding 'fear bid' gains, Gold +$9, with Oil +2.8%. VIX has rapidly cooled from a morning high of 17.19 to the 15.80s.


sp'60min

VIX weekly

Summary

*I wanted to highlight the VIX, to note the viable upside early next week.... the 21-23 zone looks a viable target is sp'500 test the 200dma.
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Suffice to say... its been an interesting four days.. having fallen from sp'2114 to 2045. Whether you want to call it a C, 3.. or 'whatever' wave... the bigger picture is again teasingly bearish.

As ever... the style in which we close March.. that will be pretty important... and could help shape how we trade into the early summer.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for lunch


12.34pm... First resistance is the hourly 10MA... which at the close of today will be around 2060.

Certainly, a daily close under 2060 looks probable.... and renewed sig' weakness into the weekend looks viable.. 2030s are well within range... which would clarify 2020/10 next week.

11am update - bearish engulfing candles

Regardless of how we close today, the bigger weekly cycles are now strongly bearish.. with bearish engulfing candles on a number of indexes. Lower lows look due early next week..  at least to the sp'2020/10 zone.. where the 200dma is lurking. Although it is notable the Trans 'old leader'.. has already breached that key MA.


sp'weekly

Trans, weekly

Summary

*as ever..  intra bounces are natural, even in an increasingly strong down trend. What should be clear... a lot of technical damage has been done since the break of sp'2085 yesterday morning.
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Notable 'fear bid' gains.... Gold +$10... with Oil +2.7% ... as Saudi Arabia attack Yemen.

Clearly... peace in the middle east is still a few thousand years away. I guess that is bullish defence/war sector.
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notable reversal/strength: DIS, +0.4%.. although still looks headed for 103/02 within a few days.. having broken the up trend.
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time to shop... back soon


11.40am  intra bounce well underway... indexes could easily turn green... but sig' damage has been done... it'd be surprising if we don't resume falling into next week.

10am update - opening reversal

Equities have seen some notable downside follow through from the Wed' declines, but the opening hourly VIX candle is warning of an intra bounce.. that could easily see the indexes at least briefly turn positive. Metals and Oil are both catching a distinct 'fear bid'.


VIX'60min

sp'60min

Summary

*first, to be clear... an intra bounce would be very natural... but on no basis would I see the opening low of sp'2049 as being the low of this cycle.

At the very least we look set for 2040/39... if not the lower zone of 2020/10... where the 200dma will be lurking next week.

So... right now... it looks like this market weakness will drag out into early next week/end Q1.
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As for Saudi Arabia/Yemen, that is no doubt the direct cause of major gains in Oil.. +3%... back above the $50 threshold.  Same for Gold, +$8

..stay tuned.
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10.01am... The opening VIX candle flips back to white... just before 10am... with the market snapping back lower.

*it is notable that in pre-market.. the sp'500 was trading at equiv' of 2040.
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10.07am.. VIX breaks a new high....  with sp'2048... its getting a little wild again.

weekly VIX cycle offers 21/23 zone... but more viable early next week. That would be suggestive of sp'2020/10.


10.16am.. VIX 17s.. which is pretty incredible... having been in the mid 12s. just this Tuesday.
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10.19am.. for those with eyes on the bigger picture...  we now have HUGE bearish engulfing candles on the weekly cycles. It bodes for lower lows next week... sp'2010/00 zone remains a VERY natural target.