Thursday, 26 March 2015

10am update - opening reversal

Equities have seen some notable downside follow through from the Wed' declines, but the opening hourly VIX candle is warning of an intra bounce.. that could easily see the indexes at least briefly turn positive. Metals and Oil are both catching a distinct 'fear bid'.




*first, to be clear... an intra bounce would be very natural... but on no basis would I see the opening low of sp'2049 as being the low of this cycle.

At the very least we look set for 2040/39... if not the lower zone of 2020/10... where the 200dma will be lurking next week.

So... right now... it looks like this market weakness will drag out into early next week/end Q1.

As for Saudi Arabia/Yemen, that is no doubt the direct cause of major gains in Oil.. +3%... back above the $50 threshold.  Same for Gold, +$8

..stay tuned.

10.01am... The opening VIX candle flips back to white... just before 10am... with the market snapping back lower.

*it is notable that in pre-market.. the sp'500 was trading at equiv' of 2040.

10.07am.. VIX breaks a new high....  with sp'2048... its getting a little wild again.

weekly VIX cycle offers 21/23 zone... but more viable early next week. That would be suggestive of sp'2020/10.

10.16am.. VIX 17s.. which is pretty incredible... having been in the mid 12s. just this Tuesday.

10.19am.. for those with eyes on the bigger picture...  we now have HUGE bearish engulfing candles on the weekly cycles. It bodes for lower lows next week... sp'2010/00 zone remains a VERY natural target.