Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are on the rebound, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2049. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, whilst Oil -0.1%. King Dollar continues to soar... whilst the Euro slips to 1.05.


sp'60min

Summary

So... we're set to open a little higher, but the bulls will need a daily close >2065 to break the down trend... that won't be easy.

As ever... eyes on the VIX, it should remain firmly <17, and start melting lower... a close in the 15s would be useful to those looking for renewed equity upside.

We're set to get a bullish MACD cross on the hourly cycle... late today or at the Thursday open. That should offer the sp'2070/80s by the Friday close.

--
Update from Oscar



I don't think the ES will hit the 2020s in the near term...  we've likely already floored.
 --
Have a good Wednesday


9.40am. R2K, Nasdaq turn red... but so is the VIX.

Overall.. lacklustre open for the bulls... but at the current rate, bulls still set to get a bullish hourly MACD turn BEFORE the end of today.

Increasing concern in currency land

The Euro/$ settled the day -1.4% @ 1.0697... and this is causing increasing concern within the broader capital markets. €/$ parity - within the near term, would be a real problem for the equity bulls, opening up a test of the 200dma.. now @ sp'2001.


Euro, weekly

USD, monthly'1, 15yr

sp'daily'1

Summary

*its late... and I'm tired... so this will be brief..
--

Euro looks vulnerable to a panic down cycle, if parity is lost against the USD... opening the door to the low 0.80s.

Meanwhile, King $ grows stronger almost every day.. and the giant 100 DXY level approaches... from there... 120.. and eventually (given a year or two)... 160s.

As for equities... with the daily close <2050 (a surprise to me), market is now vulnerable to further downside to the sp'2k threshold. All things considered though... I'm guessing we see at least some degree of upside into the weekly close. A great deal will now depend upon how the market copes with Yellen next Wednesday afternoon.
-


Looking ahead

The only things of note scheduled for Wednesday are the EIA oil report.. along with US treasury budget data.
-

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed broadly weak, sp -35pts @ 2044, with a notable close under the 50dma of 2061. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.2% respectively. Near term outlook is offering a key floor... with renewed upside into next week's FOMC.


sp'daily5

Dow

Trans

Summary

*Transports is the weakest index, and we have a clear break of the rising trend from last October.
--

I had expected Tuesday weakness to the sp'2065/60 zone... the daily close under the 2050 threshold was something of a surprise. Perhaps most notable though, the VIX is not reflecting any particular concern in the market.

In the immediate term, there is viable further downside to the 2030/20 zone.. but hourly cycles are offering a bullish MACD cross later tomorrow. On balance.. the situation favours the bulls into the weekly close.
-

Closing update from Riley



--
a little more later...