Pre-market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are broadly flat - ahead of the jobs data, we're set to open at 2062. Metals are weak, Gold -$7. Oil is higher by 1.3%.


sp'daily5

Summary

*awaiting jobs data...
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Unless we close back under the 50dma today, equity bears have nothing to tout.. its been a failed week.... having ramped from a Monday morning low of sp'1980.

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Notable early gains, TWTR +10% in the $45s, after far better than expected earnings data.

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Update from Carboni


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Have a good Friday!

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8.31am Net job gains: 257k  , headline rate of 5.7%

Arguably a goldilocks number, market will be pleased about it...

sp +5pts, 2067... BREAKING key resistance of 2064.

Gold snaps sharply lower, -$16... as market confidence increases and need for 'relics' is reduced.


8.45am..sp' holding gains of 6pts...  2068...

Gold -$18
Oil battling higher, +1.8%

TWTR building early gains +11% in the $46s


9.31am.. EXITED TWTR (long).. at $46.20.... intentionally stopped out.

*was an earnings trade.... and I'm done for the week.

USD cooling... for a little

After seven months of consecutive net monthly gains, the USD appears to be settling into a cooling phase... which could easily last some weeks. A weaker USD will especially help take the downward pressure off Oil, but regardless of any minor retrace, the USD remains the best of the 'dirty paper'.


USD, monthly

Summary

A January high of 95.85.. and now we're in the 93s. Certainly, there is a viable (and very natural) retrace to the breakout level of the 87s.. where the monthly 10MA will be in March/April.

Unquestionably though.. the USD is in the early phase of a multi-year up wave. I'm looking for at least the DXY 120 level. Others - not least Armstrong, appear to be seeking 160 as a baseline target.... which is a pretty bizarre thought!


As for US equities...

sp'weekly7

We have a VERY bullish weekly candle now.. a classic 'bullish engulfing' type... having broken below last weeks low.. but now above last weeks high. A green candle bodes for a break >sp'2064 tomorrow... and eventually into the 2100s.


Looking ahead

Friday will largely be about the monthly jobs data. Market is expecting 230k net gains, with a static headline jobless rate of 5.6%. Those targets do not look overly optimistic, and I expect them to be met.

There is also consumer credit data at 3pm
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities higher for the third day of four this week, sp +20pts @ 2062. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into the monthly jobs data, with a viable weekly close in the sp'2070s... with VIX 15/14s.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

US equities sure have seen some rather volatile chop since early December... but if the bulls can break above sp'2064 tomorrow... it bodes for renewed upside.

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a little more later...