Volatility continues to climb

With equities breaking a new cycle low of sp'1992, the VIX made a new cycle high of 22.90. With equities clawing moderately upward in late afternoon, the VIX cooled, settling +6.0% @ 21.12. Near term outlook is uncertain.... but VIX still looks set to get knocked back to the low teens as the month proceeds.


VIX'daily3

Summary

*at current rate of trend, VIX 25/26 will be viable on Wednesday, and 29/31 on Friday. The latter seems highly improbable though.
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Suffice to say... a new cycle high...but the daily candle is suggestive that a top might now be in.

In any case, the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is at the upper end of its natural cycle... equity bears have at best... a few more days before the VIX gets smashed lower again.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes broke new cycle lows (sp'1992, R2K 1153), closing moderately above the lows, sp' -18pts @ 2002. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.6% and -1.7% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain.. with risk of another few days of downside to the 200dma around sp'1960.. within a broader up trend.


sp'60min

R2K'60min

Summary

* a choppy closing hour, but there is now a very viable spike floor of sp'1992, with R2K 1153.
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So... an interesting day in market land. On what was the fifth consecutive daily decline, the equity bears clearly did some technical damage today, coming within 1% of the pre-FOMC low of 1972.

Overall though... we've seen this hundreds of times... and it always ends the same way.

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The usual updates across the evening... to wrap up the day

3pm update - its never boring

The US equity market is fighting to hold a viable spike floor, with the R2K of 1153 and sp'1992... along with VIX 22.90. The daily cycles are still in an outright bearish status... but as ever..  the up waves remain stronger.. and faster than the down waves.


R2K, 60min

sp'daily5

Summary

A fascinating day to be part of.

Suffice to say....  its never boring at the world's most twisted and rigged casino.
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*it is highly notable that the monthly sp'500 cycle saw a bearish MACD cross this afternoon.... with MARCON 6.

The last time that occurred was around Oct'14th... and we remember how that turned out... do we not?
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3.07pm.. At the current rate... hourly cycles will attain a rather important bullish MACD cross in about 2-3 trading hours. So... by late Wed' morning... equity bears are facing something of a problem... not least with it being day'6.

No doubt... the roaches will think otherwise... but then.. what else could they think?

Regardless.... enjoy the ride.


3.20pm... First target is the hourly 10MA... R2K 1170.... along with sp'2013... almost there already.


3.33pm.. VIX cooling, with a double spike top... hourly bearish MACD cross.... achieved.......equity bulls should be seeking a break <19 tomorrow.... along with sp'2025/30.


3.46pm.. chop chop... but we're a clear 1% above the earlier low.. with a rather interesting spike floor in place.

... back at the close.