3pm update - weakness into the close

With the short term upward trend broken, equities look set for some weakness into the close. Best case for the bears, sp'1925/20, with VIX 19s. Primary downside for Thur/Friday, 1910/00 with VIX 19/20s... broader upside target... 1950/60s with VIX 15/14s.


sp'60min

Summary

Interesting day.. and we have a short term top of sp'1949.

A B, 2, or whatever you want to call it, down wave to 1910/00 looks very likely, completing either tomorrow or Friday.

In either case, I still expect another wave higher to the 1950/60s next week.

Frankly, the setup looks good for the bears next week...
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3.15pm.. chop chop.. sp'1935.... a close <1930 looks ... probable. .with VIX 18s.

Notable weakness, BTU -5%.. ugly... although not as bad as CREE -16.8% on poor earnings.


3.28pm... 1934... VIX 17s....

As many note... Oil is very weak, -2.3%, and that is once again impacting the broader market.  I'm still looking for 70/65..if main market rocked before year end.


3.42pm.. a nice 1% swing from the morning high of 1949.... with VIX 18s...

On no basis though does the market look set for sustained trading <1900 in the near term.

First things first...lets get to the FOMC... next Wednesday.


3.50pm... A somewhat fun day.... sp'1926.. VIX 18s..... bodes for a weak Thursday..at least for part of the day.

back at the close......

2pm update - upward trend broken

US equities have broken the upward trend from sp'1820... and look set for a minor down wave to the 1910/00 zone. VIX is confirming the break, having already climbed 200bps from 15.50s to 17.50s. Oil is significantly weak, -1.6%


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

It is somewhat pleasing to see the bull maniacs get a little rattled.

However, I do NOT expect a sustained move <1900 in this down wave.

Broader target remains 1950/60s... by the FOMC of next Wednesday.. and then a potential crashy wave... but more on that later.
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Notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -4% in the $10s... looks set for eventually hitting $5.


2.32pm... chop chop.. in the low 1930s... a daily close in the 1925/20 zone looks probable, with VIX 18s.

.. with follow through tomorrow.

1pm update - rolling over

Mr Market is seeing a minor down cycle... with a somewhat obvious target of 1910/05 zone.. where the 200 dma is lurking. Broader upside to 1950/60s still looks due next week.. by the next FOMC.. when QE3 ends.


sp'60min

Summary

...suffice to say... a little wave lower.. call it a 2, B.. Y... or whatever...

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Hourly MACD cycle will turn negative by the close of today... offering a daily close around 1915 or so.