US equities remain stuck between the resistance zone of sp'1900/05 and the short term floor of 1880. The daily close... either side of that, will likely determine the rest of the week. VIX is showing nothing good for the bears, -8%, having briefly lost the 20 threshold.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
It remains a bit of a messy start to the week, but what is clear, the bulls are not seeing the follow through from last week.
Considering the ramp from last Wednesday, bears need a daily close <1880.
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Notable strength: airlines, DAL, UAL, both +2.7%, as Ebola travel fears subside (if briefly)
US equities open with some mixed weak chop. The Dow is notably weak, almost entirely due to IBM (-7%). VIX continues to cool, -3% in the low 21s. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$8. Nat gas' is significantly lower, -2.6%, having lost the $3.70 support.
sp'60min
sp'daily5b
Summary
Market is looking tired, despite an overnight futures attempt to break back above sp'1900.. and the 200 dma.
There still seems high opportunity for a 2-3 day push lower, to 1815/00 zone.
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Notable strength, DRYS +14%...on Ocean rig news... providing $120 million of liquidity. Hmm
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Good morning. Futures are mixed, sp'500 is set to open u/c @ 1886, whilst the Dow -75pts, with the R2K --0.4%. Metals are higher, Gold +$9, whilst Oil is a little weak, -0.2%. Equity bears need to hold under sp'1900 to offer a sub'5th wave, before a larger bounce.
sp'daily5b
Summary
Futures have swung from overnight gains of around 0.6% or so, and we're moderately negative on most indexes. In the scheme of things, its not a huge move, but for the bears.. it makes things a lot more 'comfortable' to start the week.
I'm still open to the notion of another minor wave lower, a sub 5, E, or whatever you want to call it, taking out the recent low of sp'1820.
On no basis though do I expect sustained trading <1800 for at least another 2-3 weeks.
Best guess.... 1815/00 zone... before 1920/50... and then a 'crashy' wave of 10/15%.
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Update from a (not surprisingly bullish) Oscar
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Good wishes for the week ahead
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Notable weakness, Natural gas, -1.4%, having lost the key $3.70 level, next support 3.30/20.
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9.03am.. indexes remain somewhat weak....
Notable weakness, IBM -8%... not pretty.
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*AAPL earnings due at the close of today.. so.. its a tech heavy day.
9.42am.. opening chop....sp'1900 looks out of range for the bulls today.
