11am update - QE fuelled bounce

US equities remain weak, and despite a notable bounce, equity bears can tout that the Thurs' low has been quickly broken, and confirmed via VIX 17s - the highest level since Aug'8. Rest of the day will certainly be.... interesting.


Dow, daily

Summary

*there was $2bn of QE fuel this morning.. a bounce was not unexpected. I'm kinda annoyed though that I didn't exit at the open.. I could have simply re-shorted already some 10pts higher. Oh well.
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For me, the issue now is whether we get stuck in the Dow 16700s..or keep on pushing lower to the Aug' lows. Where we floor in the current down cycle - from Dow 17300s, will likely shape the remainder of the year.
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*I'm resolutely holding short, will reassess near the close. Certainly, if we're in the 1950s, I'll probably close out.. even though the 1945/40 zone seems viable on Tuesday.
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For those in a particularly doomy mood...

Over at Mt Doom...



The first snows of the autumn (at least that I know of) are making things even more contrasting... a true land of Fire and Ice.
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11.41am  This is getting borderline bad for the bears... at the current rate, we'll be positive by 1pm. If so..then its white flag time.

10am update - breaking new cycle lows

The equity bears have already achieved some significant milestones, breaking the Thurs' low of sp'1965.. and confirmed via VIX 17s. The bigger weekly charts are offering 1910/1890 within the near term. Gold is catching a slight 'fear bid'.


sp'weekly8

Summary

*there are a hundred charts I'd like to highlight right now, but the above should at least remind everyone of the bigger issue...

We're starting the week with a red candle....and primary target would be the lower weekly bollinger.

As things are..I think equity bears should merely look for a slightly higher target of 1920/10s. It is NOT necessary to hit the August low, although it is notable that the R2K has already broken it.
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*I hold short from last Friday afternoon, seeking an exit in the sp'1955/45 zone.

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The 100 day MA of sp'1956/55 is next intraday target... we might a micro bounce from there.


10.09am.. minor chop... but still, the bears have already done some notable damage.. would be useful to see the 1950s by 11am... but not 'absolutely necessary'.

VIX holding 10% gains in the 16s...it will VERY important to close above the opening high of 17.08... seems viable.
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10.25am.... hard to keep up... black-fail candle on the VIX... hence the current equity bounce...

Bears had better negate that by end day... with a daily close >17.10.
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10.49am.. Bears getting really rattled by this QE fuelled morning bounce.

Still...a long day ahead.... I ain't particularly concerned...yet.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -11pts , we're set to start the week at 1971. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$3. Equity bears need to take out last Thursday's low of 1965, which will open the door wide to initial downside zone of 1950/40s by late Tuesday.


sp'daily5

Summary

So, we're set to open somewhat lower, just 0.3% from breaking the last weeks low. Certainly, given an hour or two, we could take out the low.. and just keep slipping into tomorrow.

For me, the issue now is whether we get stuck around 1950/40s...or somehow can unravel to re-test the August low.. no later than end of next week.

It won't be easy... the style of price action today and tomorrow will give us a good idea of where we might be trading across the next few weeks...perhaps even months.
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*as ever...eyes to the VIX, it can often offer more clarity than the indexes. Equity bears should be seeking VIX 17s by tomorrow.

Notable weakness: TSLA -2.1% (Mr Carboni will be pleased)

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Doomer chat with Hunter and Mannarino



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Good wishes for Monday


8.53am... indexes still sliding in pre-market     sp -16pts... set to open at  1966.. a mere 1pts above the Thursday low...

Sure looks like we're going down hard this morning.


8.59am.. sp'500 takes out the Thursday low in pre-market...

this is a good sign for the bears...will need some good confirmation via VIX 16s.


9.34am.. VIX 17s... a major achievement to start the week.