Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 1984. Next key support is the 1980/78 zone. With the USD +0.15%, the metals remain generally weak, Gold -$2, with Silver -0.7%.


sp'daily5

Summary

Little to add. The sp'2000s look out of range today, it will likely take the best part of 2-3 days to claw back above the giant threshold.

There remains a very valid VIX gap in the 15s... which would make for a very natural top.

So...even if we open a little higher, a brief drop to the recent low of 1978 would probably equate to VIX 15s.

--
Hunter with Ms. Prins on the bankers.



Kinda interesting, especially for fans of Nomi
-

Have a good Wednesday

Net gains for September?

Whilst the broader equity market declined for a third consecutive day (ohh the humanity!), the bigger question is whether September will now settle with net gains.. or moderate declines?


sp'monthly

Summary

Right now, the sp'500 is -20pts (-1.0%) on the month, but it will only take one decent up day to turn things around. With five trading days still left of the month, there is ample opportunity for the equity bulls to turn this around.

As I have been saying for months, until bears can achieve a monthly close under the monthly 10MA - currently @ 1904, there is ZERO reason to be shorting this market.

For me, I simply won't consider shorting any of the indexes until we're brushing the upper bollinger on the weekly and/or monthly cycles... and that sure doesn't look likely for some weeks.. if not at least another 2-3 months.


Looking ahead

There isn't much due tomorrow, just...  new home sales, and the EIA oil report.

*there is QE of around $1bn
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed lower, sp -11pts @ 1982. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is for at least a bounce to 2000/2010, bears are so far yet to break the series of higher highs and higher lows.


sp'daily5

R2K

Summary

The R2K remains notable in its weakness, although is still (just) holding above the low from early August - when the sp'500 floored at 1904.

Underlying MACD cycle is pretty low for the R2K, and despite the ongoing weakness, it won't be easy to take out the August low.

As for the sp'500, we do have a break of rising support - that links to the large bull flag. A daily close <1978 would make things 'interesting'. Until then, it remains a series of higher highs...and higher lows.
--

a little more later...