12pm update - holding the floor

Equities see another micro wave lower, but the early floor of sp'1986 is holding, and the VIX remains well below the opening gap high of 14.83. A daily close in the sp'2000/05 range looks likely, along with a red VIX in the 13s.


sp'60min

Summary

So..a bit of a choppy morning, and certainly, the bears have done some damage since the Friday morning high of sp'2019.

Yet.. we've been through this a hundred times since 2011, and it NEVER ends well for the bears. Those who were last week getting overly hysterical at the move down to 1978, were quickly nailed to the wall by a rally into Friday. I don't expect this week to be any different.

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Notable weakness: BABA -2.3%, an interesting one to watch, the dubious aspect remains you're not actually buying a share of the company, but some fund in the Cayman Islands...urghh.

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VIX update from Mr T


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time for tea.

11am update - morning battle

It remains something of a battle, but the spike floor of sp'1986 with a VIX of 14.83 is probably the best the bears can manage. First target for the bulls should be a daily close back in the sp'2000s... which looks very viable.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Yes, things remain somewhat choppy, but the hourly spike top/floor candles look like a pretty definitive turn is in.

For the day-traders out there, it makes for a rather easy place for a trading stop.

Notable weakness, BABA -2.9%
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*I remain resolutely long-indexes (sp'500)... and have ZERO interest in being short anything right now.


11.16am... the chop continues..and we're testing the earlier spike-floor... so far its holding, but its a bit of a close run thing.

VIX is NOT confirming this latest run lower..and its making for an interesting divergence.

Bears getting a bonus chance to exit.. although those in option put land..had their best chance at the immediate open.


11.22am...reading around a bit... I'm seeing more use of the C word... yeah.....'Crash'. Arguably, its just a sign that this down cycle from sp'2019 is likely complete.  

Still bemuses me that those touting the comparison to 2011 or even 2007 are not actually highlighting the key aspects.. which do NOT match with current cycles.

10am update - opening warning to the bears

Equities open a little lower, but the VIX is flashing a major warning to the equity bears to 'make a run for it'.. with a very clear black-fail candle. Equities are similarly starting to put in a rather strong floor-spike. QE of $1.7bn awaits this morning.


VIX'60min

sp'60min

Summary

Suffice to say.. such black candles are not to be dismissed lightly.

Considering the hourly VIX/equity MACD cycles... bears should be very cautious today.
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Notable early strength: coal miners, BTU +3.4%... but then, the sector remains utterly destroyed.


10.05am.. tea and chocolates (yeah, thats my breakfast)..helps...

Indexes turning green... VIX set to turn red.


10.13am.. King O' appears to tout some air strikes.... great... just great.

Indexes are seeing some chop... but broadly, I'd expect to see the sp'2000s today.