Tuesday 23 September 2014

11am update - morning battle

It remains something of a battle, but the spike floor of sp'1986 with a VIX of 14.83 is probably the best the bears can manage. First target for the bulls should be a daily close back in the sp'2000s... which looks very viable.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

Yes, things remain somewhat choppy, but the hourly spike top/floor candles look like a pretty definitive turn is in.

For the day-traders out there, it makes for a rather easy place for a trading stop.

Notable weakness, BABA -2.9%
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*I remain resolutely long-indexes (sp'500)... and have ZERO interest in being short anything right now.


11.16am... the chop continues..and we're testing the earlier spike-floor... so far its holding, but its a bit of a close run thing.

VIX is NOT confirming this latest run lower..and its making for an interesting divergence.

Bears getting a bonus chance to exit.. although those in option put land..had their best chance at the immediate open.


11.22am...reading around a bit... I'm seeing more use of the C word... yeah.....'Crash'. Arguably, its just a sign that this down cycle from sp'2019 is likely complete.  

Still bemuses me that those touting the comparison to 2011 or even 2007 are not actually highlighting the key aspects.. which do NOT match with current cycles.