12pm update - bulls back in control

With the break back into the sp'1990s, the bears have lost what moderate control they had. Market is (arguably) on the rise for cyclical reasons.. with the $2bn of QE-pomo no doubt helping. Oil is notably higher, +1.9%.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*note the daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, it is levelling out..and is offering 5-7 days to the upside.
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For the bears, this is understandably a majorly disappointing morning, but the opening signs were there...

black-fail candle on the VIX
hollow-red candle on the equity indexes

With the break of upper channel/trend resistance... now its a case of 'how high'. Obvious target is the giant 2000 threshold.
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time for lunch
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12.23pm.. gains holding.. sp'1997...and the giant 2000 threshold is now viable this afternoon.

Smaller equity cycles are getting over-stretched....but still.. .a break above trend is VERY important to recognise.

11am update - still within the near term down trend

Despite the opening reversal from sp'1979 to 1989, the near term trend remains much the same.. slow downside crawl. There seems little reason why sp'1978 will be a key floor... primary downside target remains the 1973/70 zone... with VIX 15s.


sp'60min

Summary

..again, its pretty tedious. The price action is relatively minor.

Price structure is a rather clear very large bull flag.. and whether you want to call it a wave'2.. B... or whatever.... the bears remain WEAK.

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So...its morning turn time... a problem remains $2bn of QE today.

I'm still guessing we hit the low sp'1970s...but it sure is taking its time to get there.
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Notable weakness: AAPL, -1.8%
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11.31am.. ohoh... bull maniacs punching higher... sp'1991.. and its on the edge of breaking the down trend.

Short stops will be getting hit now.....  VIX slipping away.. -2.7%


11.37am.. bears losing control.

Worse... daily MACD cycle is levelling out...

VIX -3.2%.... but after the opening black-fail candle..not entirely surprising.

10am update - failed open for the bears

The equity bears have failed from the open, with equities turning positive, and a very clear black-fail candle on the VIX hourly cycle. However, sp'1978 does not make for a good floor, and renewed downside still seems a given.. whether later today or (FOMC) tomorrow.


sp'15min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX hourly candle turns red, and its not even 10am...
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No doubt some bears are starting to throw bricks at their screens.

....even to me.. this is damn annoying.
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Notable strength: DRYS +5%.... although that is after some recent weakness.


10.39am.. still holding (just) within the broader down trend... but still.. a messy open.. again.

VIX -1%.... I suppose it could be worse for those in bear land...