Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures have swung higher from overnight lows (sp -17pts, 1892), we're set to open a touch higher, +3pts @ 1912. Metals are similarly moderately higher, Gold +$4. Equity bulls should be desperate to hold the sp'1900 threshold.


sp'60min

Summary

*as for the count on the hourly chart.. I only have 'moderate' confidence in it. Cyclically speaking, we're due an up wave.. to the 1960s. As ever though, geo-pol issues can invalidate any 'natural waves'. 
--

... so, I go to sleep to a red screen.. and 7 hours later......I awaken to moderately green.

For me, this market is starting to get real messy, and I'm starting to get rattled.
--

Update from Mr C



--

For those of you who are in a particularly doomster mood... here is Hunter, with an end week report on all the geo-pol issues.



--

Best guess on today?

Purely on a cyclical basis, we're due to push back upward... but many seem resigned to the sp'1880s.. or even the 60s - where the 200 day MA is.

Personally, I'm starting to wonder - not least when I reflect upon the monthly cycles, if there is any real chance the bulls can break >1991 in the rest of the year.

Good wishes for Friday trading.


8.37am.. sp +6pts @ 1915... but as noted yesterday, until we're back in the 1930s, bulls have little to be confident about.

Those who think the sp'1880s .. or lower are due, should be seeking VIX >17.60 this morning.


9.49am.. opening equity gains, but its looking a real mess....somewhat understandably, some will be shorting this opening micro bounce.

Still awaiting a turn

US equities broke another new low today of sp'1904. Yet the VIX shouldn't overly inspire the doomer bears, and remains stuck below last Friday's peak of 17.57. All things considered, the market is still due to turn upward.. if only to the sp'1960s.


sp'weekly8b - bullish outlook

VIX, weekly

Summary

The bigger weekly cycles are starting to look kinda ugly. Unless we get a major rally tomorrow into the 1930s, we're going to close the week with a red candle.. and we've not seen two consecutive red candles since late January.

It remains notable that despite another new cycle low in equities, the VIX has not been able to break above last Fridays high of 17.57. With each passing day, such a divergence is increasingly bullish for the market.
--


The German DAX turns bearish

For you regular readers out there, you know how I tend to obsess over the weekly or monthly cycles more than the 'minor noise'. It is a pretty rare event to have a MACD cross over on the monthly cycle.... the DAX is currently seeing one..

DAX, monthly

Most notably.. the two previous bearish MACD crosses, Aug'2011, Jan'2008. If I didn't know any other markets data... I'd be real bearish right now.

*DAX is notably now at MARCON 6, the first real warning of trouble.
--


Looking ahead

Econ-data - productivity/costs, and wholesale trade data. In the scheme of things, most won't give any attention to those.

*next sig' QE-pomo is next Thursday.
--


King O' gives the bears a late night gift

As of 10.45pm EST, US airstrikes on Iraq are now due... and futures are naturally already 0.6% lower, sp -13pts, that will offer 1896 at the open. A weekly close in the 1900s now looks doubtful. After all, if we're sub 1900 tomorrow morning, why the hell would it stop there?

For those of you who think sp'1991 is indeed a key multi-month high, then the natural target should be the lower weekly bollinger...

sp'weekly8c - bearish outlook

...which is currently all the way down at 1817.

With the latest geo-political developments, no one will be able to complain that Friday will boring.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed moderately lower, sp -10pts @ 1909 (intra low 1904). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside, at least to the sp'1960s.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

So... a day for the bears, and with a new cycle low of sp'1904, we remain within a near term down channel.

Equity bulls need to break into the 1930s to have any confidence that the current down wave has concluded. Even then, there will likely be VERY strong resistance at the old busted support - now resistance, in the sp'1960s. It is going to be tough for the market to break into the 1970s.

As for the Dow, not surprisingly, it has fractionally broken the 200 day MA, but then it did that in early February... and most should remember how things went from there.
--
a little more later...