sp'weekly8b - bullish outlook
VIX, weekly
Summary
The bigger weekly cycles are starting to look kinda ugly. Unless we get a major rally tomorrow into the 1930s, we're going to close the week with a red candle.. and we've not seen two consecutive red candles since late January.
It remains notable that despite another new cycle low in equities, the VIX has not been able to break above last Fridays high of 17.57. With each passing day, such a divergence is increasingly bullish for the market.
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The German DAX turns bearish
For you regular readers out there, you know how I tend to obsess over the weekly or monthly cycles more than the 'minor noise'. It is a pretty rare event to have a MACD cross over on the monthly cycle.... the DAX is currently seeing one..
DAX, monthly
Most notably.. the two previous bearish MACD crosses, Aug'2011, Jan'2008. If I didn't know any other markets data... I'd be real bearish right now.
*DAX is notably now at MARCON 6, the first real warning of trouble.
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Looking ahead
Econ-data - productivity/costs, and wholesale trade data. In the scheme of things, most won't give any attention to those.
*next sig' QE-pomo is next Thursday.
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King O' gives the bears a late night gift
As of 10.45pm EST, US airstrikes on Iraq are now due... and futures are naturally already 0.6% lower, sp -13pts, that will offer 1896 at the open. A weekly close in the 1900s now looks doubtful. After all, if we're sub 1900 tomorrow morning, why the hell would it stop there?
For those of you who think sp'1991 is indeed a key multi-month high, then the natural target should be the lower weekly bollinger...
sp'weekly8c - bearish outlook
...which is currently all the way down at 1817.
With the latest geo-political developments, no one will be able to complain that Friday will boring.
Goodnight from London