Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 1914. There is viable downside to the 1910/00 zone, before the first real attempt to rally to the 1960s. USD is +0.4%.. and that is again going to be a pressure on all US asset classes.


sp'15min

Summary

So.. we're set to open around yesterdays low, and will probably be trading in the 1910/00 zone by 11am.

As things are...I think there is high probability that today will be a key cycle floor.

*as noted recently, it is important for the bulls to hold above the March high of 1897. Although, some indexes - Dow/R2K, are already below it.

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Update from Mr Permabull



Not surprisingly, Oscar is leaning on the bullish side, in terms of the current price structure.
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*I will look to pick up an index-long this morning.. probably Dow/SP.

Good wishes for Wednesday trading
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9.47am.. LONG the sp'500.. from 1912.

Opening black-fail candle on the VIX... turns red.

We a very viable key floor of 1911.
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Blogger is giving me 'issues'... updates might be somewhat...sporadic.

Equity bears facing a problem

Whilst US equities saw some rather interesting declines, there remains a very high probability that a key short term floor is being put in. Even the giant sp'2000 threshold is still viable this September.


sp'weekly8b

Summary

With the Friday low of sp'1916 broken, the weekly candle on the 'rainbow' chart has turned back to red. It is highly notable that we've not seen two consecutive red candles since late January.

All things considered though - as especially based via the hourly/daily cycles, a key floor is likely in the 1910/00 zone.


Looking ahead

There really isn't much tomorrow.. just intl trade data and the EIA Oil report.

*next sig' QE-pomo is Thursday
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw rather significant declines, sp -18pts @ 1920. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.1% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is offering a key floor - near the Dow 200dma (16333), before sig' upside into mid September.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

So.. the Monday bounce gains are reversed, and we've broken the Friday morning lows.

However, the broader market is likely very close to a key turn.

Equity bears need to be very mindful in that a break of the 200 day MA on the Dow might be brief...and a mere 'tease' - just like early February.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...