3pm update - post FOMC chop

US equities have comfortably coped with QE taper'6, and most indexes look set to close with moderate gains. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is lower by a somewhat significant -0.9%. VIX looks set to close negative.. in the 12s.


sp'60min

Summary

*price action sure is choppy, but then..that is normal for an FOMC afternoon.
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Equity bulls should be content with any daily close >1972.... anything >1975 would be a bonus...and setup the 1980s tomorrow.

New historic highs in most indexes (Nasdaq remains the usual exception) appear likely within the near term.


3.04pm.. I'd be first to talk about a spike top... but the previous hourly candle is an FOMC hour candle.. and those are not often reliable.

Hourly MACD cycles are floored...everything is set for the bulls across tomorrow and Friday.


3.17pm.. chop chop.... the mid 1970s....well within range before the close.....

1980/85 will be a viable target tomorrow...

Notable weakness: GRMN, -6%.. after good earnings (but it was +9% at the open)


3.23pm spike floor on this hourly candle... here come the 1970s.


3.30pm...market looks stable...

...further upside seems likely into the close... 1972/74 zone would be fine.


3.34pm.. Dow could be +200pts tomorrow.... although that is only 1.2% or so.

Cyclically...everything is setup for the bulls from here.

Bears had their opportunity to exit.... NO excuses.


3.43pm... sp' looks strong...  Dow could close green... R2K/Trans...both moderate gains.

*I will hold moderately long overnight. Little concern for rest of the week....and indeed Aug/Sept.


3.54pm... long day.... indexes (most)...set to close green.

GDP/FOMC out of the way... next up... Friday jobs...and should be 'fine'.. at least from the markets perspective.

2pm update - time for QE taper SIX

To the surprise of many (myself included) the Fed did indeed decide that QE3 was not to be infinate after all. QE taper'6 will bring monthly QE fuel down to $25bn a month.. beginning this Friday.


sp'60min

Summary

*as far as I'm aware, there will be no Yellen press conf.
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Expect some serious chop for this hour, but with underlying upside.

Equity bulls should be aiming for a daily close >1972.. which in my view is VERY probable. Even the low 1980s are just about possible on a mini hyper ramp into the close.

What is clear...having watched this nonsense for many years...

This setup does NOT in any way favour the bears.
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yours... long the market..via the R2K.... seeking the 1170s by the Friday close.


2.01pm.. QE taper as expected...

Market seeing minor chop.... awaiting the whipsaw higher.


2.09pm.. and away...we go.   Next level is 1980.... possibly by the close.

back in 20mins.. ..or so.


2.35pm.... back...  and things look on track.

Notable weakness: VIX, -1%.. set for a close in the 12s.

Hourly MACD cycle is offering sig' upside tomorrow, to the 1985/90 zone.. new highs are viable at the Friday open.


2.40pm.. a choppy hour...as expected..and as noted....underlying upside.

Its.... ALL on track (are you out there Eddy?).

Thur/Friday both offering sig' upside.

1pm update - a floor at 1962

US equities have a high likelihood of having floored at sp'1962... with VIX 14.07. Metals remain weak, Gold, -$6, ahead of QE taper'6 - due to be announced at 2pm.


sp'15min

Summary

We have a 'reasonable' floor in the low 1960s... which many did correctly suggest earlier this week. I'm kinda surprised we didn't just keep pushing higher this morning, but hey.. I'm now overly biased to the upside (gods help me).

FOMC at 2pm... that will be sure to give price action a real kick.... almost certainly to the upside.

Seeking a close >1972
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Intraday update from Riley



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back soon


1.18pm... more minor chop....

Worse case... a brief spike lower at 2pm....and then snap higher.

I probably should have waited to use the word 'floor' before the FOMC announcement was out of the way, lol


1.29pm.. Well.... 1960 remains viable....

I've seen this situation so many times over the last few years.. and it is potentially nasty one for those on the short side. I'd still guess we close green on ALL indexes.

*it is notable that Trans/R2K remain positive.