Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are flat, we're set to open at sp'1930. With the market having slid from 1955 to 1925, the bears have seen their first minor fall in a few weeks. Can the bulls push higher into the weekend, somewhat importantly.. back into the 1940s? Probably.


sp'60min

Summary

So, we've seen a decline, and even if we see some chop today....I've little doubt we'll rally again in the first half of next week. Price action simply doesn't the bears.

Importantly, I'd like to see a weekly close in the 1940s, since it would keep the 'rainbow' chart cycle on outright bullish (green).

sp'weekly8b

--
*notable strength: INTC, +6.6% @ $29.80s, on an improved outlook.
-

Video update from Mr Permabull



The sp'2100s... hmm, I still have the hope that will not be until after a sig' 2-4 month decline, and then a final giant ramp in 2015.
--

Todays' games..

12pm EST:  Mexico vs Cameroon
3pm EST: Spain vs Netherlands
6pm EST: Chile vs Australia

Now..that should be enough to keep all the traders busy today.

Good wishes for Friday..the 13th.
-


9.06am... PCLN buys OPEN... ...OPEN +48% in the $104s.....

Lucky 13th for the equity bulls?

The market has seen a minor down wave from sp'1955 to 1925, on what is often a low, the Thurs/Friday, of the week before opex. Barring a break <1900, equity bulls should be charging for the 1960/70s next week.


sp'weekly8b

Summary

Most notable today, the 9th green candle has turned from green... to blue. The week is not over of course, and if the market can rally back into the 1940s tomorrow, then we'll still close green.
--


Looking ahead

There really isn't much due tomorrow, just producer prices (final demand), and consumer sentiment data.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next Monday.
--


Seeking another wave higher

Considering the recent price action - and a VIX whose spike-highs are now sub-teens, I hold to the outlook for further upside into next week.

*I hold long, via CHK, an index long, and WFM. If all are holding gains by late Friday, I will likely drop all into the Friday close.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes all closed lower, sp -13pts @1930 (intra low: 1925). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.9% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed 'moderate' upside into the FOMC of next Wednesday.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*the weakness in the Trans is certainly important to note, although the broader market is still comfortably holding within broader up trends.
--

All things considered, unless we fall below the big sp'1900 threshold, equity bulls really have little to be concerned with.

Best guess... upside next week..to the 1960s, possibly 1970s on a brief FOMC spike.
--

Closing update from Riley



I'd agree with Riley in that WTIC Oil looks set to test the $110 threshold, but whether we can get a monthly close >110, that is the big unknown.
--
a little more later...