Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes all closed lower, sp -13pts @1930 (intra low: 1925). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.9% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed 'moderate' upside into the FOMC of next Wednesday.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*the weakness in the Trans is certainly important to note, although the broader market is still comfortably holding within broader up trends.
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All things considered, unless we fall below the big sp'1900 threshold, equity bulls really have little to be concerned with.

Best guess... upside next week..to the 1960s, possibly 1970s on a brief FOMC spike.
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Closing update from Riley



I'd agree with Riley in that WTIC Oil looks set to test the $110 threshold, but whether we can get a monthly close >110, that is the big unknown.
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a little more later...