Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 1947. Metals are higher, Gold +$7. Oil is set to build on strong Monday gains, +0.4%. Regardless of the opening hour or so, with sig' QE-pomo of around $3bn, equity bulls still have everything in their favour.


sp'60min

Summary

So...we need an early fall of around 10/12pts to retrace to the small gap zone, which is where the lower bollinger on the hourly cycle will be.

It looks possible, but from there...up. The QE is pretty significant today, and it should be able to negate whatever declines we have in late morning.
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*I still have eyes on WFM, although it doesn't look like it will even get to my low $40s initial target.
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9.34am.. Stockcharts is offline..so..err..today could be devoid of charts...

Still breaking new highs

US equities continue to break new highs, with even the R2K rapidly catching up to the broader market. The next minor hope for the equity bears would be the FOMC of June'18th, when perhaps the Yellen will say something on interest rates.


sp'weekly8b

Summary

We're now at 9 consecutive green candles on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, and only the FOMC of next week offers the first real chance of an end to the current multi-week up wave.

All things considered, it looks like we might see a minor retrace starting next week, but with a further (small fifth?) into early/mid July.

For me..I will certainly consider an index short..if 2-3 blue candles in mid/late July. I suppose there is a possible short index play viable next week.
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The bearish R2K scenario...soon to be scrubbed.

R2K, weekly2

I do not expect this to play out, arguably any price action into the 1190s should be enough to scrub the scenario, 1200s to be more decisive.
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Looking ahead

The only thing due tomorrow is wholesale trade data, but I don't place much importance on that data point.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of around $2-3bn... bears..beware!
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes broke new historic highs in the Trans, Dow, SP, and NYSE comp. Even the R2K and Nasdaq are playing catchup, and look set to continue pushing higher into the next FOMC of June'18. There is likely further upside into July.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*We're in the magic box on the R2K, but I no longer expect a H/S scenario to play out.
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The current wave is a pretty powerful one, and we are indeed getting real close to the giant psy' level of sp'2000.

With the weekly cycles set to max out within the next few weeks, I'm somewhat suspicious that we won't actually break the 2000 level..at least for another month.

Regardless, there is ZERO downside power, and equity bears would do well to just sit on the sidelines.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...