Tuesday 10 June 2014

Still breaking new highs

US equities continue to break new highs, with even the R2K rapidly catching up to the broader market. The next minor hope for the equity bears would be the FOMC of June'18th, when perhaps the Yellen will say something on interest rates.


sp'weekly8b


Summary

We're now at 9 consecutive green candles on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, and only the FOMC of next week offers the first real chance of an end to the current multi-week up wave.

All things considered, it looks like we might see a minor retrace starting next week, but with a further (small fifth?) into early/mid July.

For me..I will certainly consider an index short..if 2-3 blue candles in mid/late July. I suppose there is a possible short index play viable next week.
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The bearish R2K scenario...soon to be scrubbed.

R2K, weekly2


I do not expect this to play out, arguably any price action into the 1190s should be enough to scrub the scenario, 1200s to be more decisive.
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Looking ahead

The only thing due tomorrow is wholesale trade data, but I don't place much importance on that data point.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of around $2-3bn... bears..beware!
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Goodnight from London