Friday, 6 June 2014

1pm update - VIX 10s

With equities holding the morning gains, the VIX has finally slipped into the 10s, a level unthinkable to many.. even just a few months ago. A weekly close with sp'1950s, and VIX 10s would be one hell of a way to start June.


VIX'monthly


Summary

Suffice to say...VIX 10s...that is a pretty bizarre thing to see.

..but then..since the economy and financial system is back health, and 'everything' is great, why not VIX 9s..or even 0 by late 2015?

--
*I continue to have my eyes on WFM, but I won't be taking any new positions ahead of the weekend.

12pm update - powerless bears

US equities continue to push higher, with sp' almost in the 1950s. VIX remains on the edge of breaking into the 10s, whilst the metals remain weak, Gold -$1. Notable significant strength in the R2K +1.0% @ 1165.


sp'weekly


Summary

*I've little interest in the smaller cycles, will try to keep the weekly charts in mind for most of rest of today.
--

More than anything, yes..the volume remains low, but it does not matter. What does matter is that the equity bears are entirely powerless..as reflected in the VIX, which has a high chance of getting knocked lower into close...for a weekly close in the 10s.

--
VIX update from Mr T.


--

Eyes on WFM

60min

I'd consider a LONG, next Mon/Tuesday, pref' in zone'2, but I'd settle for 1', if main market remains strong.
 --

back later...

11am update - who dares short this lunacy?

With new historic highs in the Trans, Dow, and Sp'500, the equity bulls can laugh themselves into the weekend. VIX is -4% in the 11.10s..and is highly vulnerable to the 10s. Metals are weak (naturally), Gold -$3.


sp'60min


Summary

From a pure cyclical perspective, we sure are looking toppy, but as I often say...

Bears have ZERO downside power.

The setup is there, but with no power, just how the hell are we going to drop 1-2%, even given a few days?
-

*I am content on the sidelines, but have my eyes on WFM (whole foods), as a possible short term LONG - the stock broke higher yesterday. I won't chase here...I'd rather wait for a minor pull back..which seems viable into Monday... more on that stock later..maybe.

Yours...frozen on the sidelines (but hey..at least I'm not short)