Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 1912. Precious metals remain weak, Gold -$5. A minor retrace remains viable, back to the 1902/00 zone, before the 1920s next week.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting second reading for Q1 GDP
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There is reasonable chance of a minor retrace today, but then, the broader trend still remains to the upside. A minor fall to 1902/00 - where there is a rather obvious gap, would be a viable area to go long.

There is sig' QE-pomo today..so even if the market is moderately lower by late morning..the bears will likely face a latter day recovery.
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Video update from Mr Carboni



Like him or not....he has been especially right on Gold.
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Notable early strength: TWTR, +2.7%
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8.31am.. GDP revised from +0.1%... to -1.0%.... real ugly number, but market doesn't much care. After all, rest of the year is going to be rainbows and unicorns..yes?


9.00am.. So..once again, all that doomer chat about 'ohh, lets short, because GDP will be bad' amounts to nothing.. with sp +4pts.

Ohh, sure we could still fall as the day proceeds, but the QE will negate most, if not all of what little downside pressure there is.


9.32am .. I think we're headed a little lower...

seeking an opening black candle on the hourly index charts...

I won't short..but sp'1900 might make for a valid buying level.

Mr Market grinding the bears into dust

With the sp'500 and Transports breaking new historic highs, those equity bears who have been short since the Feb' low continue to be ground into dust. With the R2K flooring in the 1080s last week, it remains highly suggestive of at least a few more weeks higher.


sp'weekly8

Summary

So...SEVEN consecutive green candles on the weekly chart, and anyone shorting this..is shorting into one hell of an up trend.

Where will it stop? The sp'1920s look likely next week..to begin June. The 1940/60 zone looks viable in mid June - around the time of the next FOMC.

Yet...maybe even higher? There are a few out there touting 'straight up..into the sp'2100s' in the current multi-month up wave (from Oct'2011).

Personally, I'm still seeking at least a 2-3 month wave lower this year..but hey..the months are already running out this year!


Looking ahead

There is the usual jobs data, but far more important...the second reading for Q1 GDP. Market is expecting a downward revision to -0.5.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of around $3bn, bears...beware.
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Just another day

It remains a truly tiresome market. The recent floor in the R2K/Nasdaq remains an issue I am still battling to assess. Was it merely the HEAD of a H/S now formed in the R2K, or was it just a giant 12 week down wave...with a far bigger multi-month ramp to new highs?

R2K, weekly'2, H/S

Well, the H/S scenario will indeed get dropped on any break into the 1200s....that is only 5% higher.

I will hopefully be around tomorrow, I suppose you could request a refund, but don't expect a reply.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed somewhat mixed. Most notable, new historic highs for the Transports (8102) and sp'500 (1914). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.7% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued broad market upside into mid June.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Little to add.

ALL indexes are broadly trending higher, and the Feb' low of sp'1814 is around 100pts lower. The weekly/monthly charts are both suggestive of higher levels into June..possibly July. As a fair few are suggesting, the sp'1940/60 zone looks very viable, before this madness finally does max out.

The longer this goes on..the sharper the down wave will be.
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a little more later...