Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 1894 - a mere 8pts away from breaking a new high. Weekly charts are offering the 1910/15 zone into end May, and by the next FOMC of June'18, the viable upper range will likely be around 1920/30.


sp'daily5

Summary

We have home sales data at 10am, and once that is out of the way, the rest of the day is set to be very quiet. There will of course be some significant moves in individual stocks, so I will probably focus on that today.
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End week chatter from Hunter



Suffice to say, the 'dollar collapse' issue rumbles on. I just don't see why so many are still expecting it. Again, unless you think all paper currencies are going to implode at the same time, then the key issue remains...how could the Euro or Yen not implode first?

Anyway....a long weekend ahead....and I think for most equity bears out there, a break is going to be most welcome.


The stuff of bearish dreams

For those in the mood for some true 'doomer bear' outlooks, see deflationland.

Certainly, sp'1950 is a topping level a fair few are now seeking, and I'd agree...it will likely not be viable until July - weekly charts will be restrictive before then. As for 'best case downside', I still can't see anything much below the old 2000/2007 double top zone of 1625/1575.
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*I will be very content to be entirely on the sidelines until next Tuesday.
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9.37am.. VIX is already -2%...set to take out the recent low......10s...aren't that far off now. Perhaps today, if a weekly close in the sp'1900s.

Upside into June

The always slim bearish hopes of a break under sp'1860 have now effectively faded to nothing. Mr Market looks set for continued general upside into June, with sp'1910/20s, which will likely equate to VIX briefly in the 10s.


sp'weekly8

R2K, weekly'4, rainbow

Summary

*The R2K looks particularly bullish for early June, and I'd not be surprised to see 1170/80, which could form a R/S.
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So...we look set to close the week with a green candle on the sp'500, and unquestionably...the near term outlook remains in favour of the bulls.

Upper bollinger on the weekly chart will be offering 1912/15 next week, and we do look set to end May with a monthly close in the sp'1900s.
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Looking ahead

Friday looks set to be very subdued trading, although there is New Homes Sales data at 10am.

Once we get past 11am, the indexes will probably flat line for the rest of the day.

*next sig' QE-pomo is next Tuesday.
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At least I'm not short

Having got stopped out yesterday morning, I remain content on the sidelines for the coming 3 day weekend. As it is, I would consider a small long index position next Tue/Wednesday. Certainly, I can't' short this market, at least until the next FOMC of June'18.

I still consider the weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq as a major early warning of trouble for this summer. So...I'm still on the 'big short' outlook for this summer, but lets see what sort of price action (and structure) we have by mid June.

Ohh, and that storm I was babbling on about early this morning...a glimpse..here

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes climbed for a second consecutive day, sp +4pts @ 1892. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish, with the sp'1910/20s likely into early June.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*most notable aspect of today, Transports breaking a new historic high of 7938.
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It would seem very likely that the Dow and Sp'500 will follow with further new highs in the coming days. As it is, I do not expect new highs for the R2K/Nasdaq this side of the summer.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...