Friday, 23 May 2014

Upside into June

The always slim bearish hopes of a break under sp'1860 have now effectively faded to nothing. Mr Market looks set for continued general upside into June, with sp'1910/20s, which will likely equate to VIX briefly in the 10s.


R2K, weekly'4, rainbow


*The R2K looks particularly bullish for early June, and I'd not be surprised to see 1170/80, which could form a R/S.

So...we look set to close the week with a green candle on the sp'500, and unquestionably...the near term outlook remains in favour of the bulls.

Upper bollinger on the weekly chart will be offering 1912/15 next week, and we do look set to end May with a monthly close in the sp'1900s.

Looking ahead

Friday looks set to be very subdued trading, although there is New Homes Sales data at 10am.

Once we get past 11am, the indexes will probably flat line for the rest of the day.

*next sig' QE-pomo is next Tuesday.

At least I'm not short

Having got stopped out yesterday morning, I remain content on the sidelines for the coming 3 day weekend. As it is, I would consider a small long index position next Tue/Wednesday. Certainly, I can't' short this market, at least until the next FOMC of June'18.

I still consider the weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq as a major early warning of trouble for this summer. So...I'm still on the 'big short' outlook for this summer, but lets see what sort of price action (and structure) we have by mid June.

Ohh, and that storm I was babbling on about early this morning...a

Goodnight from London