April saw significant downside for the R2K/Nasdaq, but the broader market only endured moderate declines of 4-5%. April ended relatively well for the bulls, with net monthly gains of 11pts, settling @ sp'1883. The question is, what bodes for the market in the typically troublesome month of May?
sp'monthly
sp'weekly8b
Summary
*I like the count on weekly8b, if correct, we'll max out sometime in mid/late May, early June at the latest. Equity bears should get 2-3 weeks warning before a major snap lower, via a few blue candles.
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So...another month comes to a close, and it is arguably another one for the equity bears to forget. Tomorrow, May'1st will be month'32, since the giant wave from Oct'2011 began - when the market was a mere sp'1074.
Looking ahead
We have the usual jobs data, personal income/outlays, PMI and ISM manufacturing, and construction spending.Yellen is talking early tomorrow morning, and her comments could easily give the market a kick..either way.
*next sig' QE is not until next Monday.
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Permabear drops three drillers
I had a mixed day. I should have exited STX at the open, but no..I held, only to watch STX get ground down across the day. The one solace were the Oil/Gas drilling stocks. I bailed on DO for a very sig' gain, and after some consideration, I also dropped RIG and SDRL. I will look to again pick up RIG/SDRL, or even all 3 drillers tomorrow morning.
As well as STX long, I'm still holding CHK, but that one is kinda just meandering at present.
Overall, I have ZERO interest in picking up any shorts for at least another few weeks. Whether we rollover in mid/late May..or June., that is very hard to guess right now.
All that I can say...as a self titled permabear, it remains a difficult and nasty market.
Goodnight from London
