Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are higher, sp +8pts, we're set to open around 1877. Precious metals are weak, Gold -$6, Silver -1.3%. Equity bulls should be pushing to break last weeks high of 1884, late today/tomorrow. A weekly close in the 1885/95 zone looks... likely.


sp'daily5

Summary

The recent high of 1884 is indeed the next objective for the bull maniacs.

Any daily close >1884, and it'll be a near certainty that we'll be trading in the low 1900s within the very near term.

From there, the only issue is where do we get stuck..somewhere in the 1925/50 zone.
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*I am holding HEAVY long, and I will be seeking to lighten up late today/tomorrow, ahead of the FOMC, although there is no doubt that QE-taper'4 will be announced. However, the market might use it as an excuse to briefly sell lower (if only 0.5/1.0%, for a few hours).

Regardless, I'm seeking to remain on the long side for at least another few weeks.


9.14am.. well, it won't take much of a kick to get into the low 1880s this morning. Considering the hourly cycles, very reasonable chance to break the recent 1884 high, and that will really clarify things.

Notable early weakness: DRYS, -2.4% in the $2.80s.  The low 2s look a given by late summer. I just wonder whether the company will go under, or can survive into the next commodity ramp of 2015/16.

Equity bears teased again

It was an interesting day to start the week, with the market swinging from opening gains - sp'1877, down to 1850, but then a rather typical latter day recovery. Equity bears have probably seen the low of the week, and the bull maniacs should now charge for 1880/90s by late Wednesday (Fed day).


sp'weekly8b

Summary

It is notable that we now have the third consecutive green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' charts - although it did flip briefly blue with the sp'1850s today. The broader upward trend remains intact. I could only consider the bears to have any hope, on a weekly close <1840, and that does seem unlikely.

Regardless of whether the micro count is even remotely correct, right now, the trend is still broadly UP!


Looking ahead

We have case shiller HPI and consumer confidence. If those come in at least reasonable, the market should be fine to rally - and unlike today...hold the gains.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2bn.
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Permabear covered in too much Oil ?

I hold heavy long overnight, via CHK, DO, RIG, SDRL, and STX. I dropped an annoying Silver short early in the day, although I might pick that back up Wednesday at the next hourly cycle peak.

Considering the hourly and weekly index cycles, I remain highly dubious that the equity bears can break below sp'1840 this week. Indeed, I'd not be surprised if we put in a weekly close somewhere in the 1880/1900 zone.

If the market can cope with QE-taper'4, and at least 'reasonable' GDP/monthly jobs data, then there is little reason why we won't really into May.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities opened higher, but unraveled into the early afternoon - swinging from sp'1877 to 1850. With a latter day recovery, the sp' settled +6pts @ 1869. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed u/c, and -0.5% respectively. Outlook is bullish into early May.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Suffice to say, the broader up trends are STILL holding. The daily candle on the sp'500 is somewhat bullish for Tuesday.

The two leaders remain especially weak, but the equity bears really haven't managed to display much real downside power in the broader market.

Indeed, considering the hourly index cycles, there looks to be viable upside to the sp'1880/90s by late Wednesday.
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Closing update from Mr TopStep



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a little more later...