Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 1861. Precious metals are flat. Equity bulls could sustain a daily/weekly close in the 1850/45 zone, without doing much damage to yesterdays channel break.


sp'60min

Summary

*post earnings reaction, IBM is -4%, GOOG -2%. Would not surprise me to see both close marginally positive.
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Having read around a bit, I'm somewhat bemused at how bearish some still are. We have a down channel - from the sp'1897 high, that is clearly broken, and we've seen the sp' put in 3 consecutive daily net gains.

Further, the VIX is again crushed, and that certainly supports the notion of a rally into May.

I'd actually consider picking up a small long-index block today, but then...a 3 day weekend, and I probably won't. To be clear, I currently have a 'no shorts, unless sp'1814 low is taken out' rule.

I realise some of you out there are still resolutely bearish, but really, I think yesterday's gains were pretty decisive.

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Tis almost the weekend..thank the gods.
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9.21am.. all those getting excited at the GOOG decline last evening...well, its just -1% right now. 


9.40am.. RED indexes.....RED VIX.. in the 13s.

Doesn't bode well for the equity bears. 

Normal service resumes

The bull maniacs have achieved a pretty decisive cyclical turn with a daily close of sp'1862 - a full 14pts above the 50 day MA. With the VIX back in the low 14s, everything has turned back to the bulls in the space of just a few days. For the bears, the Easter break can't come soon enough.


sp'weekly8

Summary

*I've removed all counts/labels from weekly'8, in many ways, that is probably a good idea. What matters is the broader trend.
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So...we've swung from a second red candle...and we're now outright bullish again, with a disturbingly strong green candle. Frankly, it looks to be a case of 'game over' for the equity bears. New index highs (at least for most indexes) look likely in May.


Looking ahead

With Friday closed, tomorrow will be opex, so expect some chop. We do have the usual weekly jobs data, and the Phil' Fed survey at 10am.

Earnings from GOOG and IBM annoyed the market in Thursday AH trading, but the broader market should be fine regardless.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next Monday.
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Avoiding the bear carnage

I realise for many bears, today truly sucked. Even the opening 90 minutes was something of a tease, where we saw some opening black-fail candles (on a few indexes), and there was even an opening VIX reversal candle.

Yet, across the day, the price action was pretty strong to the upside. Every little tick lower was being bought, and it was not surprising to see the market close at the high of the day.

I will not consider going long an index until next Monday, as I have little interest in getting involved ahead of a 3 day weekend. Right now, I can't conceive of any re-shorts until late May/early June. It is not the best of thoughts, but at least I didn't get nailed today.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities saw significant gains for most indexes, sp +19pts @ 1862. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled significantly higher, by 1.7% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is now bullish into May, and the sp'1925/50 zone looks a relatively easy target to hit.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

So, here we are again, and with the daily close above the 50 day MA of sp'1848, it looks pretty decisive to me. Yes, the R2K and Nasdaq are still weak, but they did manage important gains today.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set to go positive in 3 or 4 days, and with 2 days of sig' QE-pomo next week, everything is turning back to the bulls.

I sure am disappointed by the lack of the sp'1770/60s in the recent down wave, but the trend has clearly turned, and that target zone now looks unlikely to be hit for at least 2 or 3 months.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...