US indexes are battling to hold moderate gains, with the sp' back in the 1830s. VIX is lower, -4% in the 16.30s. Equity bulls need a close back above 1840 to have any confidence that the Friday low of 1814 was a key low. Metals are building gains, Gold +$12
sp'15min
Summary
Hmm..so...another bounce...and like Tuesday morning...this one is holding.
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All things considered, I find it very difficult to believe last Friday was a key cyclical low of sp'1814, with VIX in the upper 17s.
Bears surely have Tue/Wed' still in their favour.
Will be interesting to see how we close today.
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11.07am.. With a clear break >hourly 10 EMA, the super bearish outlook is...dropped.
I am still seeking a break <1800...based on recent price action, and the bigger weekly cycles.
Just need some patience....
11.22am.. worse case for those on the short side right now..the low 1840s, but that seems difficult. Who is going to be buying there?
US equities open moderately higher, but there are signs we'll still close the day net red. VIX is offering a clear reversal candle. Equity bulls are still fighting a primary down trend, as seen on the bigger daily/weekly charts. For the moment...the bounces are still to be shorted.
sp'15min
vix'60min
Summary
*It is an overly busy morning here in the London bunker. As builders continue to re-build my kitchen, I'm now battling window blinds that need fixing. Can today get any more tricky?
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I'm considering picking up a secondary index short block, but frankly, I'm somewhat overloaded with household tasks, and might just be content with what I already hold.
Regardless, this bounce is...just a bounce - at least that is how I see it.
Primary target remains unchanged..... 1770/60s..by late Wednesday.
10.04am.. minor chop, and despite the green indexes... VIX is also occasionally green.
That does NOT bode well for the bulls.
10.09am... watching the 15min cycle...maybe the maniacs can hold it up until the morning turn time of 11am.
10.23am. SHORTED, indexes.. from sp'1825... seeking an exit later today/Tuesday.
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +8pts, we're set to open at 1823. Precious metals are mixed, Gold +$7, with Silver -0.8%. Equity bears look set to continue controlling the near term, but there will be strong support in the 1770/60s, where there are multiple supports.
sp'60min1b -EMAs
Dow, daily'2
Summary
*I should first note, the probability of breaking under dow 15700 is pretty low, maybe just 15/20%. The bears are going to need some kind of catalyst to give the market a scare. Certainly, there is the ongoing Ukraine situation, but really, would that really be enough?
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So..we're set to open moderately higher, and the next big target is a daily close <1800. That still seems possible later today.
I think the bears have until Wednesday afternoon to push this market lower.
The one thing in the bears favour this week, there is very little QE to prop things up. If we don't hit the lower weekly bollinger (sp'1770s), I'm going to be majorly disappointed. Such a failure would easily offer the threat of a higher high, although I still think the bulls hit a concrete wall of 'seasonal resistance' in May.
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Video update from Oscar
I would agree with a fair bit in the latest video, but I have to sigh on the fed comments. The Fed has NEVER correctly forecasted anything, it has made the bubble highs..higher,...and the crashes deeper, never mind the issue of 'money out of nothing' as a solution to underlying structural problems.
Oscar knows day-trading, but I wish he'd be mute on matters of macro-economics.
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What am I planning?
Considering we're opening somewhat higher, I'll consider adding a secondary index re-short, if only for a day-trade.
*ANY break above the 10EMA (probably 1827/30 at the open), and I'll drop any hopes of <1770s this week.
Good wishes for this Easter trading week!
9.33am... first resistance 1830 area....lets see if we get stuck there for a bit
9.37am... 10EMA is 1827/28..any move over there..and the more doomer outlook should get dropped.
