11am update - break of trend

With not enough willing to chase it higher, the market has failed to hold the sp'1870s, and with a little weakness, we've already seen a clean break of trend. The door is now open to the 1845/35 zone, which will probably equate to VIX 17/18s.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*with no bounce to 11am, I've not picked up a secondary SPY put block, and I sure won't chase this lower. I'm content to sit on SDS, and have raised my stop.
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So...there is clear weakness, and a move to the 1840s now looks pretty much straightforward.

The only issue in my view now is whether we lose the 1830s. If that occurs, then downside will extend to 1800/1790.

Notable weakness in the momo stocks, NFLX -6.4%, TWTR, -5.9%


11.15am.. interesting morning...and as usual, kinda ironic how clown finance TV are trying to ignore the declines as though 'everything is just fine'.

VIX breaks into the 16s, but look at those momo stocks! FB, TWTR, NFLX..all getting smashed.

10am update - failing opening gains

The week begins with some minor gains, and we were (briefly) back in the sp'1870s. Yet, the Friday reversal was somewhat important, and a break >1883 looks... difficult. There remains viable downside to 1845/35, a break <1830 similarly looks... difficult. Bulls lack any sig' QE-fuel until Wednesday.


sp'15min

Summary

*I am open to picking up a secondary SPY put block this morning, once the smaller 15min cycle maxes out. Typically, 11am would make for a reasonable time.
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Notable weakness in the metals.

GLD, daily

Starting to look kinda ugly, esp' on the bigger weekly charts.


10.04am... break of trend on the 15min...and we're headed down.

*I won't chase the market lower...I merely already sit on a core SDS block.

VIX 15.20s...16s is where things get interesting (that'd break the FOMC spike low - equiv' to sp'1850.


10.13am.. raised my SDS stop...just being cautious..since the weekly charts DID close positive last week.

Interesting failed opening gains....no one wants to buy the 1870s...at least yet.


10.25am.. Notable weakness, NFLX, -5%...I've no idea why, but the other momo stocks all weak too, FB, TWTR...in fact, is now in the $48s..a key break of support.

Game over for the momo stocks?


10.31am..market about to break rising trend.... door is open to 1845/35


10.35am.. clear BREAK of trend...we're going to the 1840s.. VIX +5%, set for the 16s.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 1869. Metals are weak, Gold -$10, Silver -0.6%. With the Friday reversal from 1883, equity bears just need to break <1860, to open up a test of the 1845/35 zone, with VIX in the 17/18s.


sp'daily5

Summary

*awaiting PMI manu' data at 9.45am
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So, we're set to open a little higher, but we do have a short term double top of sp'1883. Bears just need to break <1860, to open up a trend/floor test in the 1845/35 zone.

If we somehow break <1830 this week, then we'll keep going, at least to the 1790s.

*no sig' QE-pomo until Wed', so the bears have a clear window of opportunity until early Wed' morning.

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Video update from Oscar



I would have to agree with Oscar that the primary trend is very much intact, However I find it difficult to envision a straight up move to the 2100s. Perhaps 1925/50, and then 1600s on a 'summer swoon', and then up into year end?

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As ever...updates across the week!

9.36am opening minor gains.

I will consider picking up a small SPY put block around 11am....give the bull maniacs a good hour to get exhausted.

VIX is lower, and indeed..it IS low, which at least makes buying index shorts..cheaper.

Metals weak, Gold -$16.