Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 1824. Having lost 1830..and first fib support of 1818, equity bulls should be fighting hard to hold the semi-critical zone of 1812/10 for the rest of this week. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is +0.5%


sp'60min

Summary

*Retail sales: 0.2% vs 0.0% expected. Overall, the number is weak, but market it is acceptable to the market. November revised lower, from 0.4 to 0.1. 
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So...the week has started with the first significant down day in over a month, and the bears have even taken out a few support lines. Yet..there are so many levels of support from 1812-1800, I find it very difficult to imagine that the market will go much lower from here.

Recent price action (not including yesterday) has not been in the least bit bearish, and even yesterday morning, had the VIX in the 11s.

Equity bulls just need to hold things together until early Wednesday, when the next round of sig' QE-pomo will kick in.
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Video update from Mr C.


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Notable early movers: INTC, +1.8%. F, +1.1%

stay tuned!

Crash calling maniacs

With the main indexes closing lower by around -1.4%, some of the remaining doomer bears are at it again, invoking the 1929 (amongst others) analogy, and calling for a huge crash wave in the coming months..if not weeks. Suffice to say...the primary trend actually remains to the upside.


sp'weekly8

Dow'monthly2, rainbow

Summary

I read a fair bit over the weekend (once my ISP finally let me view Google based sites), and frankly, a fair amount of what I saw was laughable nonsense.

Once again, people are posting up the 1929 chart, overlaid with current price action, and calling for a key multi-year top literally..tomorrow.

Today's index declines were significant, but hell, wasn't sp'1818 a target that a fair few (myself included) were recently seeking? Its not like there wasn't a chance of another little wave lower in the early part of this week.


Bears still have no perspective

No doubt..across the web this evening, you'll be seeing some of those who were touting doom across the weekend, posting 'see.......I told you!!!!'. Those same people care little for the grander issues, and frankly, just about all of them have been calling a top each week since the Oct'2011 low of sp'1074...some 70% lower.

re: chart weekly'8.   My best guess is that we'll see a 3% decline - in a larger sub'4, but not until we first hit the 1860/80 zone...probably within the next few weeks.
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Looking ahead

Tomorrow will see retail sales..and it will certainly be interesting to see how sales were across the holiday month as a whole. There are also two fed officials speaking, and like today...that might give the market a kick..one way or another. After today's reaction to Lockhart, do you think Plosser and Fisher will be somewhat more inclined for 'no-taper' talk?

There will be various company earnings of course, but as is often the case, a given company can trade one way, whilst the main market trades the other way. A fair few analysts seem to be placing a lot of emphasis on the financials, but I think the market has bigger issues to deal with.

*next sig' QE is not until Wednesday
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Ohh the irony

I realise my comments on those calling for a crash are highly ironic. After all, I was doing just that last spring, yet with the decisive break into the 1600s last summer, and proceeding significantly beyond..I can't take the bigger bearish scenario seriously anymore.

No doubt a few of the doomers - who do believe in an imminent crash, will be dismissive of what I've said..but hey...I do understand. I myself am now beyond that mindset. Call it what you wish.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes opened with minor chop, but with the break <sp'1830..the weakness gathered some momentum, sp -23pts @ 1819. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by around -1.4%. Baring a break below the big 1800 threshold, the primary upward trend remains intact.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

For the bears it was the first decent down day in over a month. I'll certainly call the daily net decline 'significant', but still, it wasn't anything too major. When was the last 2/3% daily decline? It has been so long, I can't even recall without looking at a chart.

The bears managed to break the 1830 support line today, but there are multiple walls of support at 1812/10/08..and then 1800.

I just can't see the bears being able to break all those levels of support. The fact that the VIX earlier today was in the 11s, was again a reminder of just how fearless this market is.
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a little more later...