sp'weekly8
Dow'monthly2, rainbow
Summary
I read a fair bit over the weekend (once my ISP finally let me view Google based sites), and frankly, a fair amount of what I saw was laughable nonsense.
Once again, people are posting up the 1929 chart, overlaid with current price action, and calling for a key multi-year top literally..tomorrow.
Today's index declines were significant, but hell, wasn't sp'1818 a target that a fair few (myself included) were recently seeking? Its not like there wasn't a chance of another little wave lower in the early part of this week.
Bears still have no perspective
No doubt..across the web this evening, you'll be seeing some of those who were touting doom across the weekend, posting 'see.......I told you!!!!'. Those same people care little for the grander issues, and frankly, just about all of them have been calling a top each week since the Oct'2011 low of sp'1074...some 70% lower.
re: chart weekly'8. My best guess is that we'll see a 3% decline - in a larger sub'4, but not until we first hit the 1860/80 zone...probably within the next few weeks.
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Looking ahead
Tomorrow will see retail sales..and it will certainly be interesting to see how sales were across the holiday month as a whole. There are also two fed officials speaking, and like today...that might give the market a kick..one way or another. After today's reaction to Lockhart, do you think Plosser and Fisher will be somewhat more inclined for 'no-taper' talk?
There will be various company earnings of course, but as is often the case, a given company can trade one way, whilst the main market trades the other way. A fair few analysts seem to be placing a lot of emphasis on the financials, but I think the market has bigger issues to deal with.
*next sig' QE is not until Wednesday
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Ohh the irony
I realise my comments on those calling for a crash are highly ironic. After all, I was doing just that last spring, yet with the decisive break into the 1600s last summer, and proceeding significantly beyond..I can't take the bigger bearish scenario seriously anymore.
No doubt a few of the doomers - who do believe in an imminent crash, will be dismissive of what I've said..but hey...I do understand. I myself am now beyond that mindset. Call it what you wish.
Goodnight from London