Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 1841  - a mere 8pts from the historic high. Metals are similarly higher, Gold +$6, but still $35 below old broken support. Equity bulls look set to push into the 1850s by the Friday close.


sp'60min

Summary

*weekly jobless: 330k, a reasonable number I guess you could say, but the monthly data really needs to be coming in with net gains of 300-500k to really offer a genuine sign of economic recovery.
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So...a little higher to start the day, and again, for those expecting the 1700s in the near term...we'll pulling away from key support zone of 1810/00.

Indeed, I think it very viable now, that we won't break <1800 until the summer.
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notable early movers: UAL +2,4% in the $42s, a mere $6 from the historic high from 2007.

A quiet day in market land

It was a pretty quiet day for US equities. Despite reasonable ADP jobs data, and the FOMC minutes where the Fed discussed lowering the headline jobless target to 6.0%, the market just saw minor price chop. All of this recent price action is mere consolidation..before further upside.


sp'weekly8

Summary

There really isn't anything to add. The bears are still getting overly excited at any micro drop...only to see the market rebound each time. The broader trend remains unquestionably to the upside.


The next intermediate wave lower

I've posted the following chart a few times over the last few months, back when the 1800s seemed impossible to many. Yet.. here we are, and now the issue is whether the 1900s..or even the big sp'2000 threshold will be broken above, before the next major wave lower.

sp'weekly'9 - the next fib retrace.

I'm starting from the assumption that we should be looking for at least a 38% retrace of the entire wave - that started way back in Oct'2011, when the sp' was a mere 1074. If you then work backwards, from the notion that the 1625/1575 - the high from 2000/2007, is now support, then it gives the 1880s..at least.

Upside target zone into the late spring remains.. sp'1950/2050. We'll just have to see where we are in March/May..and re-assess then.


Looking ahead

There will be the usual weekly jobs data, along with two Fed officials whose comments might move the market a little. Other than that though, there really isn't anything significant. Market looks set to remain in the 1835/45 zone until early Friday.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until Friday.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed with some chop, sp -0.4pts @ 1837. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and unchanged respectively. There appears relatively easy upside to the sp'1850s within the next few trading days, and possibly 1860/80 before the next minor top is complete.


sp'daily5

Dow

Trans

Summary

Little to add, on what was a pretty quiet day in market land.
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We arguably still have bull flags on just about all the indexes, and there is pretty easy upside of 2-3% into end January. The transports looks especially strong, and is holding the up trend from early October.

Certainly though, the sp'1900s look unlikely in the current wave.
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a little more later...