3pm update - all must have prizes, yes?

The market has been teasing the bears all week, only for it to end with a rather significant daily gain. A closing hour sell off seems unlikely, and with another large QE next Monday, equity bulls have little to be concerned about for the rest of the year.


sp'daily5

Summary

Hey, can't everyone claim something good from this week? The bears had 4 days of declines..and the bulls saw a significant gain to close the week.

As the dodo would say ...'‘everybody has won, and all must have prizes'.  :)
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re: a possible B' wave.

There remains a small possibility this is just a B' wave bounce - as many recognise.

However, that scenario faces the usual issues of QE, and the broader weekly/monthly cycles are pushing higher anyway.

I certainly still think this market is untradeable on the short side.
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updates into the close..on what has been a pretty interesting week.


3.11pm  The 15min cycle will be offering upside into the closing 10 minutes. A spike to 1808/10 is viable, which would be a net weekly gain for the sp'500.


3.15pm.. first support is now 1800/1798...bulls should be able to hold that, before another wave up.


3.29pm.. 5min cycle looks floored at 1802. A close >1806 ..still viable.

3.35pm.. a clear baby bull flag on the micro 5min cycle...offering a close 1806/08

3.45pm.. 1802...still time for a little spike into the weekend. 


3.52pm..and here comes the closing spike.

2pm update - Dow is the one to watch

With the November monthly close giving a clear breakout - from a six month tight trading range, the Dow is giving the clearest trading signal. There is December upside to 16400/600, with 17000/500, by late spring 2014. With QE set to 'largely' continue across 2014..bears face major problems.


Dow' monthly

Dow'daily

Summary

..ignoring the minor wave nonsense today...and keeping in mind the grander cycles.

The November close for the Dow was indeed particularly impressive, and was the clearest warning that December will likely give some follow through to the upside.

Right now.. a Dec/year end close in the 16400/600s looks viable.
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Notable weakness in the momo stocks.. FB, NFLX, TSLA, TWTR.. all somewhat lower. Even AAPL is -1%..although that is hugely up recently..so..its possibly just cooling down. 


2.32pm.. Dow holding 16k... sp'1800s.. Nasdaq.. broke a new post 2009 high earlier...not that many noticed!

1pm update - text book back test

Of all the indexes, the Dow is offering the clearest picture of what is currently going on. We have a classic text book example of a back test of old resistance...which is now support. With the monthly chart offering Dow 16500 before year end..equity bears are understandably dismayed at the current gains.


Dow' daily

Sp'weekly'8

Summary

I'm trying to refrain from getting 'lost in the minor noise'..so I'll keep to daily/weekly charts for a bit this afternoon.
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So..Dow 16000 looks set to be hit in the next hour. I don't think its important for a close there..but for the hyper-bulls..that would be the target..along with SP >1806.


The weekly 'rainbow' sp' chart is offering the same kind of price action that we saw from Feb-April of this year. Endless little teases to the bears..but always bouncing right back.

As ever...it remains a nasty market.

*ohh..and bears holding short across the weekend..be mindful...there is HEAVY QE-pomo next Monday of around $4-5bn.

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12.59pm..and there is Dow 16000.