Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open around 1762. Metals are a touch higher, whilst Oil is flat. Equity bears have their best chance until early Wednesday of a move down to the sp'1735/30 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

So..we're set to actually open a little lower!

Equity bears really do have a reasonable chance of a down wave into tomorrow. Arguably, bears need to break into the 1750s by late morning to have any chance of a Tuesday close in 1740s..which would make the 1730s viable for tomorrow.

With no sig' QE today...lets see what the bears can muster.
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Video updafe from Mr Permabull...



Looks like Oscar is seeking Trans 7300s, which I am too. Maybe we'll see a multi-week rollover from there...certainly no later than mid December.

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Notable early movers: TSLA, +$4 @ 179. , earnings at the close (really, I think so...today)

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9.03am.. sp -8pts...so we're set to open in the 1750s...!

This at least makes for some interesting action..after yesterdays boredom.

Remember Remember the fifth of November

The market started the week in a quietly bullish mood, with the underlying upside pressure still clearly there for all to see. The bigger weekly/monthly charts are offering a further 2-3% upside this month, with the sp' likely to break into the low 1800s.


sp'monthly3, rainbow

sp'weekly8

Summary

A quiet start to the week...it can only get more lively from here..yes?

There is the Twitter IPO on Thursday (gods help us all), and we have the monthly jobs data on Friday. Surely the market will see at least somewhat increased volatility as the week progresses?

Best guess remains...sp'1730s..before another wave higher into the 1800s later this month. I should add, I don't believe any wave lower is worth attempting to trade on the short side. Overly risky..with only moderate downside available, verses the relentless algo-bot melt.


Deflation is still an issue

I've not highlighted the CRB index for some months, but commodity prices are still very weak. The current reading of 273 takes out the summer low. Next level is the June 2012 low of 266.

CRB, weekly

There is downside to the 230/220s in early 2014, which is remarkable when you consider the general macro-economic picture, and the QE from various central banks. So much for underlying price inflation!

Indeed,the discrepency between stocks and commodity prices has never been bigger.

You can see how 'something' changed in spring 2011..and after 2.5yrs, the market just keeps on pushing higher, whilst commodities are slipping back to the 2009 collapse wave lows.


Looking ahead

The only noteworthy econ-data for tomorrow is ISM non-manu', but I don't think Mr Market will much care about that.

*next sig' QE is Wednesday
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Bearish fireworks for November fifth?

Certainly, the hourly index charts are all primed for a decline tomorrow. At best, maybe we can close somewhere in the 1750s, with follow through downside in early Wednesday.

I continue to see a great many out there tout much lower levels, but really, anything <sp'1700 in the near term seems extremely unlikely. It would seem the only fireworks being launched this week, will be for the Twitter IPO.  As I noted at the weekend, equity bears may as well come back in 4-6 months.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed moderately higher, with the sp +6pts @ 1767. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both gained around 1.1%. There remains huge underlying upside pressure, and equity bears must not get lost in mild hysteria, if the market falls into the 1730s later this week.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

This was always going to be a tough week for the bears, not least with three significant doses of the QE-pomo fuel. We're continuing to broadly rise from sp'1646, with the 1800s now increasingly viewed as viable by the mainstream.

The most notable issue remains the disturbing strength seen in the Trans and R2K, both of which powered significantly higher today.

For the equity bears out there, even if there is any minor wave lower later this week, it will likely be brief..and arguably untradeable.

a little more later...