sp'monthly3, rainbow
sp'weekly8
Summary
A quiet start to the week...it can only get more lively from here..yes?
There is the Twitter IPO on Thursday (gods help us all), and we have the monthly jobs data on Friday. Surely the market will see at least somewhat increased volatility as the week progresses?
Best guess remains...sp'1730s..before another wave higher into the 1800s later this month. I should add, I don't believe any wave lower is worth attempting to trade on the short side. Overly risky..with only moderate downside available, verses the relentless algo-bot melt.
Deflation is still an issue
I've not highlighted the CRB index for some months, but commodity prices are still very weak. The current reading of 273 takes out the summer low. Next level is the June 2012 low of 266.
CRB, weekly
There is downside to the 230/220s in early 2014, which is remarkable when you consider the general macro-economic picture, and the QE from various central banks. So much for underlying price inflation!
Indeed,the discrepency between stocks and commodity prices has never been bigger.
You can see how 'something' changed in spring 2011..and after 2.5yrs, the market just keeps on pushing higher, whilst commodities are slipping back to the 2009 collapse wave lows.
Looking ahead
The only noteworthy econ-data for tomorrow is ISM non-manu', but I don't think Mr Market will much care about that.
*next sig' QE is Wednesday
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Bearish fireworks for November fifth?
Certainly, the hourly index charts are all primed for a decline tomorrow. At best, maybe we can close somewhere in the 1750s, with follow through downside in early Wednesday.
I continue to see a great many out there tout much lower levels, but really, anything <sp'1700 in the near term seems extremely unlikely. It would seem the only fireworks being launched this week, will be for the Twitter IPO. As I noted at the weekend, equity bears may as well come back in 4-6 months.
Goodnight from London