Monday, 28 October 2013

11am update - eyes on the transports

The old leader - Transports, continues to lead the way. The 7200/7300s look viable within the next few weeks, and that should offer the equity bears the first reasonable index short level. Trans 7200 should equate to sp'1790/1810.


Trans'weekly2, rainbow


sp'daily5


Summary

*further to note, the daily upper bol' on the sp' is now offering the 1780s in the immediate term.

Perhaps a spike on FOMC Wednesday to 1775/85 zone, before a few percent retracement?
-

Broader trend remains clearly to the upside.

10am update - awaiting some algo-bot melt

The market opens somewhat muted, but we have already broken into the sp'1760s. There is little reason why we can't close in the 1760s today, and push into the 1770s by Wednesday. Certainly, we're over-stretched, but with near zero sell side volume, equity bulls are in control.


sp'60min


sp'weekly8


Summary

*I've added a weekly chart, if only to note the upper bollinger, now offering the 1770s.

At current upward rate, sp'1800s will be 'difficult' until mid November, but hey, that's only 3 weeks out.
-

APPL earnings at the close, so...a long day ahead.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open in the low 1760s. Metals and Oil both look flat. Equity bulls look set for further gains today, the very large QE of $5bn will no doubt help!


sp'60min


Summary

Well, another week begins, and by the end of it, it'll be a new month, and 2014 will feel a lot closer!

I'm guessing at least a few more weeks 'battling higher'. The sp'1800s do look likely, but we'll probably get stuck somewhere in the 1810/30 zone, before some kind of 3-5% retracement.

With QE set to continue ALL the way into late spring, I see no reason why this nonsense won't be trading in the sp'2000s.
--

*London city is clearing up after a rather stormy early morning. Some damage (if limited) in most places, even from my own window! The UK clocks have changed, and that will be annoying for this week, as all my EST times will need to be adjusted by an hour!
--

Update from Mr Permabull



Interesting how Oscar is now the first (that I know of) in the mainstream to be touting the sp'2000s in the current multi-year cycle. Even if the market gets whacked 20% next year (for whatever reason), sp'2500 looks pretty easy to hit by late 2015.

Anyway...one day at a time....and this week will of course be all about the FOMC this Wednesday.